Nation clears constitutional referendum, looks ahead to presidential poll

"This is a new beginning that will be a very big contribution for conflict
resolution not only in Burundi but in the whole subregion of the Great
Lakes," said Ramadhani Karenga, the spokesperson for the Conseil national
pour la defense de la democratie-Forces pour la defense de la democratie
(CNDD-FDD), formerly the largest rebel faction in the country.

The key elements in the constitution are its power sharing arrangements.
The president, to be elected by parliament from the winning political
party, must have as one of his deputies someone of a different ethnic
group and political party. In addition, the new constitution provides for
a 60-percent Hutu 40-percent Tutsi representation in all institutions of
government, except the army and the police where the ratio is 50-50. This
gives greater power to the Hutu who had, despite their superior number,
been the political underdogs of the two ethnic groups.

The Hutus make up at least 85 percent of the eight million Burundians
while the Tutsi, who have dominated leadership since independence from
Belgium in 1962, represent 10 percent and the Twa, mostly
hunter-gatherers, account for 5 percent. The Twa claim to have been
marginalized by both parties.

Another key feature of the new constitution is the provision of a
30-percent women's representation in all government institutions.

"This is the first time in Burundi's history that women are getting a
major representation," Karenga said.

The chairwoman of the Association of Women Lawyers, Majorie Niyungeko,
said, "This is an important step because there has never been such a
provision in previous constitutions, although we would have preference to
have a higher percentage."

Now that the majority of Burundians voted "yes" in the referendum, women
would like to see the provision implemented, she said, and appealed to the
electoral commission to ensure the provision was implemented.

Since the new constitution provides for two vice-presidents, one of them
should be a woman, Niyungeko said.

She said women wanted the commission to ensure that the 30-percent
equation would also be applicable to individual political parties, a
measure that would ensure that more women would gain political leadership
at the highest levels.

She said women were now conscious that they held such potential political
power; their votes could not be taken for granted.

Meaning of the voter turnout

The CNDD-FDD faction, led by Pierre Nkurunziza who is now the minister of
state in charge of governance has, since signing a power-sharing agreement
with the transitional government in 2003, reformed from rebel group to a
political party. It advocated a "yes" vote in Monday's referendum.

Karenga said the huge voter turnout for the referendum was testimony that
the country's security situation had improved greatly, especially in the
province of Bujumbura Rural. He attributed this to what he said was the
"neutralisation" of the Forces nationales de liberation (FNL); the only
rebel group that has not signed a peace deal with the transitional
government. Karenga also said the massive police presence near polling
booths had enhanced security.

Fears that the FNL would disrupt the plebiscite did not materialise. The
rebel group had pledged it would not disrupt the polls. Now that the
hurdle of the constitutional referendum has been cleared, the next are the
parliamentary and legislative polls scheduled for April. So, far, the FNL
has not yet given an undertaking to allow those processes to proceed
without disruption.

Beyond the local implications of the success of the referendum, Karenga
said he hoped the polls would "serve as an impetus to other countries in
the region, such as the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo], that are going
through a process similar to this one of ours."

Despite Karenga's optimistic view of the situation at home, and despite
the high "yes" vote, other stakeholders in Burundi's political process had
advocated a "no" vote, arguing that the constitution was exclusionist and
dictatorial. However, the coordinator of the Centre for the Alert and
Prevention of Conflict, Charles Ndayiziga, said the 'no'" vote would have
no impact on the country's peace process.

He said even Tutsi parties that called for the "no" vote knew the "yes"
vote would win since they had lost the struggle for the amendment of the
constitution long ago. Ndayiziga said the only reason these parties called
for a "No" vote was to measure their capacity to mobilise the public.

Moreover, results from some Tutsi populated areas - such as Bisoro Commune
in Mwaro Province - showed that the "no" vote did not even attract 10
percent of the electorate.

Reaction to the poll

Reacting to the poll's results, the chairman of one of the Tutsi-dominated
parties, PARENA, Jean-Baptiste Bagaza told reporters Monday in the
capital, Bujumbura, that many flaws had marred the referendum.

"I went out of the voting bureaux [booth] with the yes and no votes and
nobody stopped me, it means everybody else could have done the same,"
Bagaza said. "There was no sense of secrecy during the polls."

He also accused the CNDD-FDD of intimidating voters and compelling them to
vote "yes". In some regions, he said, many CNDD-FDD ex-combatants were
still deployed and they threatened people with execution if they voted
"no".

The chairman of the Coalition of the Civic Society for the Monitoring of
Elections in Burundi, Jean Marie Vianney Kavumbagu, told IRIN on Tuesday
that in spite of some irregularities, the vote was fair. The coalition had
deployed 740 observers countrywide.

The referendum is one of the requirements to bring about a democratically
elected government, in accordance with a Peace and Reconciliation Accord
signed by Burundian parties in August 2000 in Arusha, Tanzania.

The accord provides for a three-year transitional government that should
have ended in October 2004. However, the electoral timetable was delayed
several times because of disagreements over the details of the new
constitution. This resulted in an extension of the transitional period
until April 2005, to facilitate the holding of Monday's referendum and the
general elections in April.

If all goes as scheduled the elections Burundi could usher an era of
sustained peace after an 11-year civil war in which an estimated 300,000
people, mostly civilians, have been killed.

Civil war broke out in the country in October 1993 after Tutsi
paratroopers killed the first democratically elected leader, Melchior
Ndadaye, a Hutu. The war then pitted the Tutsi-dominated army against
several Hutu rebel groups.

Monday's referendum thus marked the first time that Burundians have voted
since Ndadaye's death.

Karenga said with the yes vote secured in the referendum, it was now up to
President Domitien Ndayizeye and the Independent National Electoral
Commission, or CENI, to fix a definite election timetable.

"We don't see any reason to have another delay [in holding the
elections]," Karenga said. "Even if the timeframe looks tight, some of
these elections can be combined."