LDP influence waning in Nyanza

Equally under scrutiny is the role of LDP’s de facto leader Raila Odinga, whose influence has been a deciding factor in elections in Nyanza province since the re-introduction of multiparty politics in 1992.

The April 21 by-election, which was occasioned by the death of LDP chairman Joab Omino, was narrowly won by LDP’s Rev. Ken Nyagudi who garnered 8185 votes against KANU’s Shem Onyango, who managed 6852 and FORD-People’s Orie Rogo Manduli, who managed a paltry 683 votes.

KANU nominated MP Mutula Kilonzo blames LDP’s near loss to wrangles within the larger NARC while other analysts attribute the near dismal performance to m Odinga’s diminishing clout in Nyanza politics. But Raila dismisses as “wishful thinking” and “propaganda” speculation that he was losing grip in Nyanza.

The current LDP chairman David Musila, however, claims that the party is getting stronger by the day. “The election was won and lost on clan strength. It does not in any way reflect the real strength of LDP in the area or elsewhere”, he said. It is noteworthy that of all the candidates, it was only Onyango who hailed from Kisumu District. Both Nyagudi and Manduli hail from the neighbouring Siaya District.

LDP secretary general Joseph Kamotho observed: “Both Nyagudi and Onyango were initially in LDP. But Onyango lost in the party nominations and decamped to KANU. That explains the vote margin”.

It may be recalled that Nyagudi’s nomination was in itself controversial. There were claims that he was fronted by the National Alliance Party of Kenya [NAK] faction of NARC to weaken LDP in Nyanza. The LDP hierarchy, however, preferred Prof Larry Gumbe – a key party strategist – who unfortunately lost the nomination.

It is for this reason that the high profile campaigns that NARC is known to mount at elections was evidently absent at the Kisumu polls. Nyagudi’s victory was almost single handed as the region’s MPs chose to either stay in Nairobi or in their own constituencies. While touring western province, president Mwai Kibaki asked cabinet ministers who were in his entourage to go and campaign for Nyagudi but very few responded.

Only Bondo’s Dr Oburu Odinga and Kisumu Town East’s Gor Sunguh blazed the campaign trail, but they too, left a day prior to the election.

The MPs attributed their absence to the fact that people on the ground were hostile since Nyagudi was not the preferred party candidate. Nyagudi’s chances were only boosted when Raila and cabinet colleagues Kalonzo Musyoka, Najib Balala, Amos Kimunya and Chris Murungaru appeared at one of his campaign rallies.

The LDP instead campaigned behind the scenes for KANU’s Shem Onyango. The win is now viewed as creating an alternative power base in Nyanza, away from the traditional Odinga powerhouse.

Nyagudi fared badly, beating his closest rival by only 1333 votes. Unlike other elections where Raila pitches tent until voting begins, this time round he only campaigned once.

Much as he won the election, the victory cannot be said to be sweet for Nyagudi. If he is to continue being viewed as a NAK sympathizer, he could face the same tribulations as Tuju and may not see parliament, come 2007.

All said and done, the results of the poll have cast doubts on LDP’s supremacy in Nyanza province. For a party that played a key role in sending KANU out of power, not to mention the near fanatical support it enjoys in Nyanza, the results were anything but poor. More appropriately, the results are seen to have ushered a totally new dispensation in Nyanza politics.

For the first time, the people of Nyanza have elected a leader of their own choice as opposed to the normal practice, where Raila endorses candidates then presents to the electorate. Analysts aver that voters went ahead to prove the point that a new type of politics is coming to the region.

Nyagudi’s win, no doubt, places most sitting Luo MPs in a precarious situation come the 2007 general elections as it proves that even a candidate not enjoying the support of LDP elites can win an election. With increased voter awareness, most Luo MPs will not be sitting pretty, given that most of them went to parliament courtesy of Raila’s influence.

LDP’s waning popularity was also evident in the neighbouring Karachuonyo constituency, where a civic seat was won by Odondi Owiti, who ran on a SPARK ticket after decamping from LDP, citing irregularities in the nomination exercise.

But the victory, no doubt, came with many challenges for the coalition. The many intrigues that characterized campaigns from the very beginning seemed to have opened a Pandora’s box within LDP and the coalition at large. Matters came to ahead after the nomination of Nyagudi, a wealthy businessman who beat candidates favoured by the LDP such as Prof Gumbe and the late Omino’s son Joshua and his brother Dan.

Nyagudi was to later travel to Nairobi to receive his nomination certificate in a ceremony where LDP was not represented. That is when many observers began to view him as a NAK sympathizer. The ejection of cabinet minister Raphael Tuju from a campaign rally also had something to do with his close association with NAK operatives.

But Onyango’s sterling performance in an LDP stronghold has gone a long way in defining his popularity as a candidate compared to past KANU nominees.

That the KANU and FORD-People candidates have challenged the poll results clearly shows that the battle is far from over and LDP could be in for a major shock, especially if the results are nullified. Needless to say, the election was marred by violence, lending credence to allegations that it was not free and fair.