Fears over snap polls

Besides lingering worries over the health status of president, Mwai Kibaki, politicians across the board have been busy making contingency plans should the ongoing wrangles in the National Rainbow Coalition boil down to the need for a fresh mandate, though none of the sitting MPs is comfortable with such prospects.

Such is the acrimony that necessitated a special cabinet meeting on March 8 to try and make the cabinet work and behave like a team, even as other politicians continue to trade accusations over which partner is to blame for the growing acrimony, especially over the constitutional review.

"We are unknowingly working ourselves towards fresh elections through some of our utterances. What some of us do not know is that MPs are underestimating the resolve by Kenyans to get a new constitution, and the public can demand for anything should we fail to provide that by June," noted the Ford-Kenya MP for Malava, Soita Shitanda, who added that his party is working behind the scenes to avoid the escalation of acrimony that could lead to fresh elections.

Possible public demand for accountability aside, investigations revealed that political activities by both members of NARC and the opposition in the recent past revolve around the prospects of early elections, should the coalition fail to close ranks on a number issues that require consensus for the sake of stability in government.

The outspoken assistant minister for energy, Mwangi Kiunjuri, revealed in a candid interview recently, that his National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK) wing is genuinely worried that the implementation of the contentious new constitution in total could open doors for court cases compelling the government to comply with a new constitution, which might mean fresh
elections.

"If we accept this constitution in total, we shall have voted ourselves out of power. We have been very alert about those who think they can have a constitutional coup through Bomas by calling for fresh elections as soon as a new constitution is enacted," said Kiunjuri in reference to their Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) counterparts, who are pushing for adoption of new parliamentary system of government.

"That is why," he continued, "We believe that the only way to implement a new constitution without affecting continuity and creating a vacuum, is to do it section by section". The yet to be revealed contingency plans to implement the constitution piecemeal, is , according to Kiunjuri, behind efforts by some MPs allied to NAK to let parliament have the final say over the product
that will emerge from the National Constitutional Conference NCC, also known as Bomas III.

Strong signs that fresh elections might be in the offing include; the impasse over presidential and parliamentary systems of government, the failure to agree on NARC grassroots elections and the dissolution of constituent parties, the hushed negotiations to include some members of the opposition Coalition for National Unity (CNU) into the cabinet, and the yet to be resolved push by some politicians to have parliament take over the review process.

Matters came to ahead last month when members of members of LDP and Ford-Kenya partners, came out in the open to accuse president Kibaki's Democratic Party (DP) of "mistreating" other affiliate parties since the coalition took power in 2002 and threatened to gang up against government bills and motions in parliament.

But most notable was this month’s warning by the usually moderate Ford-Kenya leader, Musikari Kombo, who noted that "the recruitment drive could wreck the coalition and prove more costly than dialogue". He also warned that the long-drawn wrangles could lead to the formation of a rival coalition that could break NARC.

While Kiunjuri's expose is a manifestation the deep unease within NARC over the contents and direction over the review process, other constitutional experts maintain that the issue over fresh elections or not will depend on the recommendations by the technical working committee on transition and consequential arrangement at Bomas.

Both president Kibaki and the de facto leader force behind LDP, Raila Odinga, have on separate occasions—but with different motives—expressed the wish that the new document should only be implemented after the 2007 elections.

While past experience show that Kenyan MPs normally embrace consensus when faced with elections that they can avoid, other quarters believe that elections might be inevitable as a result of three factors, whether a new constitution is enacted by June as promised by president Kibaki, or fails due to deep-seated suspicions within NARC.

Should it pass even through a consensus, then it might bring alive Kiunjuri's fears that their LDP counterparts might push for fresh elections as a means of realising the failed pre-election promises.

But more decisive, is the decision by NAK wing to conduct grassroots elections minus its LDP and Ford-Kenya partners, an event that if continues, could mark the end of the coalition as currently constituted. NAK would like to open the party to individual membership, while both LDP and Ford-Kenya maintain that corporate membership is the foundation on which the coalition was founded.

"NARC as a coalition of convenience was bound to shake to its core once the mutual trust that bound them together faded. But MPs across the board are not brave enough to declare that they might fail to give Kenyans a new constitutional order," observed David Joseph Attyang, a district delegate and a member of the transition committee.