New threats to the peace process

According to Amnesty International, An international Human Rights Organisation, the signing of the agreement on wealth sharing in Sudan has opened a window of opportunity for a lasting peace. Both the Sudanese government and the rebels - Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) have stated that some form of agreement would come by the end of this year.

The peace talks between the Sudan government and the SPLA/M offer hope to the people of Sudan. For the last 10 months of the ceasefire nearly all civilians in the south and border regions have been able to live in peace, however fragile. "But the negotiators in Kenya must not ignore the fighting elsewhere in Sudan," Amnesty International said.

And as the peace process enters a crucial phase in Naivasha, Kenya, Amnesty International has stressed that "a lasting peace must be inclusive and bring justice to all".

While opening the 8th conference of the African Trade Unions unity organization early this month, the Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir announced that a comprehensive peace agreement with the southern rebels will be signed "shortly," while Khartoum said that the agreement with the southern rebels will not be the typical example for implementation of an agreement for the Darfour area.

Darfur, in western Sudan, is not included in the peace negotiations to end the civil war mostly fought in southern Sudan and areas between north and south. On 16 December 2003 talks in N'djamena, Chad, between the government of Sudan and the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A), one of the armed groups opposing the government in Darfur broke down.

Amnesty thus notes that: "While the prospects for peace have been fêted in Khartoum and the south, in Darfur the life and safety of civilians are again being held hostage by government forces, militias and armed opposition groups," The human rights watchdog said in a recent report.

President Omar al-Beshir vowed in December to annihilate the Darfur rebels, who rose up against Khartoum in February last year, claiming their region was being neglected by the government.

The uprising in Darfur has so far claimed about 3 000 lives, displaced about 670 000 within Sudan and sent 80 000 fleeing to neighbouring Chad.

However, the first Sudanese Vice President Ali Othman Muhammad Taha expressed his optimism towards the signing of the wealth sharing agreement saying it means the "end of the long chapter of the civil war". He noted that the agreement confirms the sincere desire of the government to realize a just and comprehensive peace in Sudan.

Taha stressed the determination of the government to proceed forward in the negotiations, until a just and comprehensive peace is achieved.

Following the signing of an agreement on sharing the oil-rich country's wealth, Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail said Khartoum and the SPLA might conclude a peace settlement in several weeks, "I am optimistic that in a short while we will manage to sign the peace accord," he said, adding the timeframe proposed up until now was the end of January.

"We are continuing to hope (to be able to respect the deadline), but in my opinion, even if we exceed this date, it will not take much time" to conclude a settlement, the minister said. "I'm not speaking of months, but perhaps weeks." Ismail was quoted as saying.

While welcoming the agreement, SPLA/M chairman John Garang, said a new chapter in Sudan's history will start. He was pleased with the international community, the UN, IGAD and the Kenyan government for the efforts made to facilitate reaching this agreement.

In attendance to the signing ceremony were the Sudanese finance minister, al-Zubeir Ahmad Hassan, and the minister of energy, Awad Ahmad al-Jaaz, Kenya's foreign minister, Kalonzo Muzyoka, Norway international cooperation minister, Hilda Johnson, and the Kenyan peace negotiator, Lt. Gen. Lazaro K. Sumbeiywo.

Under the agreement, the oil revenue is to be shared equally between the government of the southern region. 2 per cent of oil revenues will go to oil producing districts, while non-oil revenues from the south, like customs fees and taxation are shared at a rate of 50 per cent for each side.

The spokesman for the Sudanese delegation, Sayed al- Khatib, recently noted that the central bank of Sudan will open a branch in the south to facilitate banking there. The two parties also agreed to found a fund for rebuilding the south, and another one to rebuild devastated areas.

But as the two delegations continue to discuss the issues of sharing authority, and the fate of the three areas, Abyei, Nuba mountains and the south of the blue Nile, known as "margined area," it has emerged that peace in Sudan may still remain a pipe dream.

Bashir ruled out any chances of a deal over the three disputed areas saying that the talks with southern rebels had no authority to settle the status of Abyei, Nuba mountains and Southern Blue Nile. Political analysts and commentators say Bashir's stand is a recipe to scuttle the peace process.

The official Sudan News Agency quoted Bashir as saying: "We have no mandate to resolve this issue in the current talks in Naivasha,. One issue in the peace talks on southern Sudan remains, that is participation in power."

Media reports say Khartoum's government would oppose any attempt to redraw the border between northern and southern Sudan. The media has quoted Bashir as saying the government had in the past agreed to a dialogue on the territorial dispute only "out of respect for the other side" and on condition that it did not form part of the IGAD peace initiative.

It should be noted that control of the regions is one of the outstanding issues at the talks aimed at ending 20 years of war, after the two sides agreed to share oil wealth.

According to the BBC's Alfred Taban based in Khartoum, SPLA/M has been lobbying for Abyei region to be placed under its control.

He reports that many SPLA/M top ranking officials come from the area, also believed to have some oil deposits. The disputed regions are mainly arid areas whose boundaries were changed during the colonial period.

In July 2002 the sides reached an accord granting the south a referendum on secession after a six-year interim period that begins after combatants agree to a final peace deal. Under the arrangement Islamic "Sharia" law would apply in the north but not the south.

The SPLA/M has been fighting the Islamist government in the north for more autonomy for the largely Christian and animist south. The war, in which two million people have been killed and four million displaced, is complicated by factors such as ethnicity and religion as well as ideology and economics.