Walking a tight rope

Contrary to expectations that NARC would disintegrate in a few months, the 15-party coalition has managed to hold, but with its key constituent parties merely bearing and tolerating each other. Cat and mouse games, public wrangles, name -calling, temporary 'ceasefires' and outright disagreements among cabinet ministers on policy issues have characterized NARC's woes. Even the retreat for NARC members of parliament held at a resort on the slopes of Mount Kenya in April to settle scores, only regenerated into deeper mistrust and suspicion. Outstanding areas of contention at the retreat were power sharing, proportionality of Cabinet positions and other presidential appointments, the constitution review process, the merger of NARC affiliate parties, and the emergence of a 'mafia ring' that 'surrounds' the president. Notably, power sharing is the most heated and lies at the apex of NARC's troubles. NARC being a conglomeration of 15 political parties, houses ambitious and strange political bedfellows whose sole reason of uniting was to end the 24-year regime of Daniel Arap Moi. Indeed, it convincingly outmaneuvered the grand old party - the Kenya African National Union (KANU), which had dominated the country's politics for close to 40 years. At the centre of controversy is the pre-election Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU), signed by the 15 political parties. The MOU was a power sharing agreement that apportioned government positions on an equal basis between NARC's two major blocs, the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK) and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) - the rebel offshoot from KANU The MOU designated Mwai Kibaki as the NARC presidential candidate and ultimate president, the late former Vice-President Michael Wamalwa as his running mate, and Roads minister Raila Odinga as prime minister. The other positions of first and second vice-president, two deputy prime ministers and a chief minister were apportioned to Cabinet ministers Kalonzo Musyoka, George Saitoti, Charity Ngilu, Kipruto arap Kirwa, and Vice-president Moody Awori respectively. The eight leaders made up the now moribund Summit - the highest decision making organ in the coalition. Nevertheless, matters took a nosedive, when upon his election, Kibaki took the winner-takes-it-all position and declined to convene the Summit when naming his Cabinet. This immediately brought a hue and cry with some ministers and MPs from the LDP feeling shortchanged in cabinet appointments and asking to break even. Equally, their colleagues in NAK took a hard-line position, challenging them to quit if they felt unsatisfied with the appointments. Since then all that remains is acrimony with the other NAK affiliate parties insisting that LDP is a single entity while NAK groups 12 other parties. The LDP wing has quickly devised a new strategy, demanding that Kibaki meets the pre-election campaign pledge of a new constitution within a hundred days. To them, the review of the constitution is a solid foundation for power sharing, as it would create the additional power structures spelt out in the MOU. (The current constitution only provides for a president and a vice-president, with the former enjoying enormous privileges and powers above other institutions including parliament and the judiciary). NAK stalwarts, on the other hand, are not in favour of LDP's call for a parliamentary system headed by a prime minister. NAK holds that the model will drastically cut the president's powers and pass them on to a prime minister, a feat that would boost LDP's strategy. NAK's position that the President sought a popular five-year mandate and needs to retain power with the provisions of the current constitution is inadmissible to the LDP camp. Kibaki has been on the firing line as concerns his appointments in the State corporations, diplomatic missions, the judiciary, civil service and the security forces. Shouts of nepotism and tribalism are widespread as are complaints to the effect that ageing bureaucrats are being appointed at the expense of fresh blood. One thing, however, that is distinct in the Kibaki's style is the aloof manner in which he has handled the NARC crisis. With a hands-off approach that is dissimilar to the ever-present hands-on style of his predecessor, Daniel Moi, his ministers have been taking the heat on matters of policy directed to their respective dockets. Through 'withheld suspense' he has settled threatening schemes by opponents with a good measure of unpredictability. Meanwhile, LDP made a dramatic shift that has variously been described a 'tactical retreat' by analysts. Their demands for a new constitution and on the MOU worked to NAK's time-buying tactics. But having abandoned that position, they have left the NAK strategists with no direct rallying point. Previously, NAK's salvos were directed at the LDP camp, which they criticized for working with other parties, notably KANU, to undermine the government. But when Odinga - the focus of their attacks - proclaimed that he was not seeking the position of premier, they seemed to have lost tact, with some 'ceasefire' taking root. However, they are still not ready to let go their mistrust for the man, who by virtue of his growing stature nationwide and his enviable position as king-maker, presents a visible threat to Kibaki's reelection plans in 2007. Odinga has simply put his eyes on the constitution review process, which is the arena for any future political battles. Despite assurances by Kibaki that the process will be completed by June 2004, there are doubts on the sincerity of the power barons in his court, who are wary of Odinga's craft. Some of the president's key allies have strongly condemned the National Constitutional Conference (NCC) as a mere 'talking shop', thus putting them on a collision course with members of LDP and KANU who want the process hastily concluded. Now that the NCC has been adjourned to next year, it remains to be seen how much more tact president Kibaki will exercise to make his bumpy political road level. LDP strategists led by Odinga have not signaled an end to their schemes, and so are the NAK power barons. Just as LDP will be bidding their time at least until the 2007 election, when they unleash their political arsenal full throttle, NAK will be countering at the same pace to protect their gains. One thing that is not in doubt is the fact that politics is a game of many wars and those who direct the wars have always to be on their feet looking for new strategies. Given the emerging trends, between now and the next battle front, the political field is sure to be abuzz with new realignments and alliances as NAK, LDP and KANU gear themselves to seek advantage.