Walking a tight rope

Contrary to expectations that NARC would disintegrate in a few months,
the 15-party coalition has managed to hold, but with its key constituent
parties merely bearing and tolerating each other.

Cat and mouse games, public wrangles, name -calling, temporary
'ceasefires' and outright disagreements among cabinet ministers on
policy issues have characterized NARC's woes. Even the retreat for NARC
members of parliament held at a resort on the slopes of Mount Kenya in
April to settle scores, only regenerated into deeper mistrust and
suspicion.

Outstanding areas of contention at the retreat were power sharing,
proportionality of Cabinet positions and other presidential
appointments, the constitution review process, the merger of NARC
affiliate parties, and the emergence of a 'mafia ring' that 'surrounds'
the president.

Notably, power sharing is the most heated and lies at the apex of
NARC's troubles. NARC being a conglomeration of 15 political parties,
houses ambitious and strange political bedfellows whose sole reason of
uniting was to end the 24-year regime of Daniel Arap Moi. Indeed, it
convincingly outmaneuvered the grand old party - the Kenya African
National Union (KANU), which had dominated the country's politics for
close to 40 years.

At the centre of controversy is the pre-election Memorandum Of
Understanding (MOU), signed by the 15 political parties. The MOU was a
power sharing agreement that apportioned government positions on an
equal basis between NARC's two major blocs, the National Alliance Party
of Kenya (NAK) and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) - the rebel
offshoot from KANU

The MOU designated Mwai Kibaki as the NARC presidential candidate and
ultimate president, the late former Vice-President Michael Wamalwa as
his running mate, and Roads minister Raila Odinga as prime minister. The
other positions of first and second vice-president, two deputy prime
ministers and a chief minister were apportioned to Cabinet ministers
Kalonzo Musyoka, George Saitoti, Charity Ngilu, Kipruto arap Kirwa, and
Vice-president Moody Awori respectively. The eight leaders made up the
now moribund Summit - the highest decision making organ in the
coalition.

Nevertheless, matters took a nosedive, when upon his election, Kibaki
took the winner-takes-it-all position and declined to convene the Summit
when naming his Cabinet. This immediately brought a hue and cry with
some ministers and MPs from the LDP feeling shortchanged in cabinet
appointments and asking to break even.

Equally, their colleagues in NAK took a hard-line position, challenging
them to quit if they felt unsatisfied with the appointments. Since then
all that remains is acrimony with the other NAK affiliate parties
insisting that LDP is a single entity while NAK groups 12 other parties.

The LDP wing has quickly devised a new strategy, demanding that Kibaki
meets the pre-election campaign pledge of a new constitution within a
hundred days. To them, the review of the constitution is a solid
foundation for power sharing, as it would create the additional power
structures spelt out in the MOU. (The current constitution only provides
for a president and a vice-president, with the former enjoying enormous
privileges and powers above other institutions including parliament and
the judiciary).

NAK stalwarts, on the other hand, are not in favour of LDP's call for a
parliamentary system headed by a prime minister. NAK holds that the
model will drastically cut the president's powers and pass them on to a
prime minister, a feat that would boost LDP's strategy. NAK's position
that the President sought a popular five-year mandate and needs to
retain power with the provisions of the current constitution is
inadmissible to the LDP camp.

Kibaki has been on the firing line as concerns his appointments in the
State corporations, diplomatic missions, the judiciary, civil service
and the security forces. Shouts of nepotism and tribalism are widespread
as are complaints to the effect that ageing bureaucrats are being
appointed at the expense of fresh blood.

One thing, however, that is distinct in the Kibaki's style is the aloof
manner in which he has handled the NARC crisis. With a hands-off
approach that is dissimilar to the ever-present hands-on style of his
predecessor, Daniel Moi, his ministers have been taking the heat on
matters of policy directed to their respective dockets. Through
'withheld suspense' he has settled threatening schemes by opponents with
a good measure of unpredictability.

Meanwhile, LDP made a dramatic shift that has variously been described
a 'tactical retreat' by analysts. Their demands for a new constitution
and on the MOU worked to NAK's time-buying tactics. But having abandoned
that position, they have left the NAK strategists with no direct
rallying point. Previously, NAK's salvos were directed at the LDP camp,
which they criticized for working with other parties, notably KANU, to
undermine the government.

But when Odinga - the focus of their attacks - proclaimed that he was
not seeking the position of premier, they seemed to have lost tact, with
some 'ceasefire' taking root. However, they are still not ready to let
go their mistrust for the man, who by virtue of his growing stature
nationwide and his enviable position as king-maker, presents a visible
threat to Kibaki's reelection plans in 2007.

Odinga has simply put his eyes on the constitution review process,
which is the arena for any future political battles. Despite assurances
by Kibaki that the process will be completed by June 2004, there are
doubts on the sincerity of the power barons in his court, who are wary
of Odinga's craft. Some of the president's key allies have strongly
condemned the National Constitutional Conference (NCC) as a mere
'talking shop', thus putting them on a collision course with members of
LDP and KANU who want the process hastily concluded.

Now that the NCC has been adjourned to next year, it remains to be seen
how much more tact president Kibaki will exercise to make his bumpy
political road level. LDP strategists led by Odinga have not signaled an
end to their schemes, and so are the NAK power barons. Just as LDP will
be bidding their time at least until the 2007 election, when they
unleash their political arsenal full throttle, NAK will be countering at
the same pace to protect their gains.

One thing that is not in doubt is the fact that politics is a game of
many wars and those who direct the wars have always to be on their feet
looking for new strategies. Given the emerging trends, between now and
the next battle front, the political field is sure to be abuzz with new
realignments and alliances as NAK, LDP and KANU gear themselves to seek
advantage.