NARC: One year of mixed fortunes

The National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) government, that rode on an overwhelming reform wave, has had unexpectedly mixed performance one year down the line. Topping the list of achievements is the provision of free primary education that has brought to school 1.5 million more children, raising the primary school population to 7.2 million. Despite suffering logistical problems at initial stages, free primary education is set to become a lasting NARC legacy, given that an estimated 3 million school age children were out of school, due to lack of fees. The initiative has received overwhelming support from all development partners. The government has also received substantial public goodwill following the successful rehabilitation of street boys and girls that used to be a menace to Nairobi residents and tourists. These phenomenal successes received a boost last month when the Bretton Woods institutions resumed lending for budgetary support to the country after a hiatus of four years. However, the ongoing wrangles within the ruling coalition over power-sharing arrangements have not only scared some would-be investors but have given the impression among the donors that president Mwai Kibaki may not be fully in charge to effect the desired economic reforms. These trends coupled with recent "Economic indicators" report by the government's Central Bureau of Statistics that Kenyans are much poorer than they were five years ago have cast doubts whether the economy can grow at the rate of 7 per cent as projected by NARC. Also worrying is the fact that country's tourism industry - the second foreign exchange earner - still reeling from the effects of negative travel advisories-further suffered when Touristik Union International (TUI) UK - the world's largest tour operator - cancelled its bookings for the 2003-2004 winter season. The cancellations - effected mid October and coming at the beginning of the high tourism season in Kenya - further spelt doom for the economy. However, hopes are high that NARC seemingly has the drive to tackle the runaway official graft that soured Kenya's relations with donors. The government s currently cleaning up the judiciary, where a number of corrupt judges have been suspended and tribunals set up to investigate them. This is besides numerous legislative measures to help fight graft in the public service. In October, president Mwai Kibaki led his cabinet colleagues in declaring their wealth, a strong indication of the government's commitment to fight corruption. Though winning on the anti-graft front, the government is still grappling with its promise to create 500 000 jobs annually in the face of the current economic downturn. Whereas Vice President Moody Awori and Labour Minister Ali Mwakwere recently claimed that the government had created 400000 jobs, there are no official records to back up their assertions. The NARC government, while enjoying goodwill, is finding itself trapped in former President Daniel Moi's legacy. Surprisingly, President Kibaki, since taking over power, has retained, in high position, some personalities who served under KANU, such as the Director of Security Intelligence, a key Moi lieutenant. Of great concern is the fact that Moi-style cronyism has emerged in the name of "Mount Kenya Mafia", a coterie of cabinet ministers from Kibaki's Central region, who wield immense powers. Complaints also abound that Kibaki's populous Kikuyu ethnic community is being favoured in public appointments. But what is likely to cost NARC its popularity is the growing feeling that some high-ranking personalities close to Kibaki are no longer interested in the completion of the long-drawn constitutional review despite NARC promising Kenyans a new constitution within the first 100 days in office. Notably, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minster Kiraitu Murungi has gone on record to fault the National Constitutional Conference. These are some of the underlying factors that could make it difficult for the 15-party conglomerate to distance itself from Moi's governance style and might reduce its chances of winning the 2007 general election. There are hopes however that the recent appointment of a moderate and respected Moody Awori to the vice-presidency could bring about truce in NARC. Notably, after Awori's appointment, disenchanted members of his LDP party have ceased demanding for the implementation of the contentious pre-election Memorandum of Understanding [MOU]. Keen observers, however, say this is a tactful retreat aimed at laying ground for the 2007 elections. At 76, Awori is an unlikely successor, buttressing allegations that Kibaki would like to run for a second term, contrary to his earlier pledge to serve for only one five-year term. It is against this background that the NARC constituent parties have refused to dissolve themselves and are instead building new alliances. Consequently, Kenya seems destined for coalition governments, as no single party can win elections on its own. NARC is considered a jinxed government in some quarters, in view of the many deaths stalking it since taking over power late last year. In just one year, the coalition has lost five MPs, three of them cabinet ministers. Kibaki himself was involved in a fatal accident during the campaign period, forcing him to take the oath of office on a wheelchair. Vice President Michael Wamalwa's death, in particular, had far reaching repercussions on the ruling NARC, as it robbed Kikai of a key ally and exposed him to attacks from Wamalwa's FORD-Kenya party. With determination to fight graft and implement key economic reforms, hopes are that the NARC government might succeed in reviving the ailing economy.