NARC: One year of mixed fortunes

The National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) government, that rode on an
overwhelming reform wave, has had unexpectedly mixed performance one
year down the line.

Topping the list of achievements is the provision of free primary
education that has brought to school 1.5 million more children, raising
the primary school population to 7.2 million.

Despite suffering logistical problems at initial stages, free primary
education is set to become a lasting NARC legacy, given that an
estimated 3 million school age children were out of school, due to lack
of fees. The initiative has received overwhelming support from all
development partners.

The government has also received substantial public goodwill following
the successful rehabilitation of street boys and girls that used to be
a menace to Nairobi residents and tourists.

These phenomenal successes received a boost last month when the Bretton
Woods institutions resumed lending for budgetary support to the country
after a hiatus of four years.

However, the ongoing wrangles within the ruling coalition over
power-sharing arrangements have not only scared some would-be investors
but have given the impression among the donors that president Mwai
Kibaki may not be fully in charge to effect the desired economic
reforms.

These trends coupled with recent "Economic indicators" report by the
government's Central Bureau of Statistics that Kenyans are much poorer
than they were five years ago have cast doubts whether the economy can
grow at the rate of 7 per cent as projected by NARC.

Also worrying is the fact that country's tourism industry - the second
foreign exchange earner - still reeling from the effects of negative
travel advisories-further suffered when Touristik Union International
(TUI) UK - the world's largest tour operator - cancelled its bookings
for the 2003-2004 winter season. The cancellations - effected mid
October and coming at the beginning of the high tourism season in Kenya
- further spelt doom for the economy.

However, hopes are high that NARC seemingly has the drive to tackle the
runaway official graft that soured Kenya's relations with donors.

The government s currently cleaning up the judiciary, where a number of
corrupt judges have been suspended and tribunals set up to investigate
them. This is besides numerous legislative measures to help fight graft
in the public service.

In October, president Mwai Kibaki led his cabinet colleagues in
declaring their wealth, a strong indication of the government's
commitment to fight corruption.

Though winning on the anti-graft front, the government is still
grappling with its promise to create 500 000 jobs annually in the face
of the current economic downturn. Whereas Vice President Moody Awori and
Labour Minister Ali Mwakwere recently claimed that the government had
created 400000 jobs, there are no official records to back up their
assertions.

The NARC government, while enjoying goodwill, is finding itself
trapped in former President Daniel Moi's legacy. Surprisingly,
President Kibaki, since taking over power, has retained, in high
position, some personalities who served under KANU, such as the Director
of Security Intelligence, a key Moi lieutenant.

Of great concern is the fact that Moi-style cronyism has emerged in the
name of "Mount Kenya Mafia", a coterie of cabinet ministers from
Kibaki's Central region, who wield immense powers. Complaints also
abound that Kibaki's populous Kikuyu ethnic community is being favoured
in public appointments.

But what is likely to cost NARC its popularity is the growing feeling
that some high-ranking personalities close to Kibaki are no longer
interested in the completion of the long-drawn constitutional review
despite NARC promising Kenyans a new constitution within the first 100
days in office. Notably, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minster
Kiraitu Murungi has gone on record to fault the National Constitutional
Conference.

These are some of the underlying factors that could make it difficult
for the 15-party conglomerate to distance itself from Moi's governance
style and might reduce its chances of winning the 2007 general election.

There are hopes however that the recent appointment of a moderate and
respected Moody Awori to the vice-presidency could bring about truce in
NARC. Notably, after Awori's appointment, disenchanted members of his
LDP party have ceased demanding for the implementation of the
contentious pre-election Memorandum of Understanding [MOU].

Keen observers, however, say this is a tactful retreat aimed at laying
ground for the 2007 elections. At 76, Awori is an unlikely successor,
buttressing allegations that Kibaki would like to run for a second
term, contrary to his earlier pledge to serve for only one five-year
term.

It is against this background that the NARC constituent parties have
refused to dissolve themselves and are instead building new alliances.
Consequently, Kenya seems destined for coalition governments, as no
single party can win elections on its own.

NARC is considered a jinxed government in some quarters, in view of
the many deaths stalking it since taking over power late last year. In
just one year, the coalition has lost five MPs, three of them cabinet
ministers. Kibaki himself was involved in a fatal accident during the
campaign period, forcing him to take the oath of office on a wheelchair.

Vice President Michael Wamalwa's death, in particular, had far reaching
repercussions on the ruling NARC, as it robbed Kikai of a key ally and
exposed him to attacks from Wamalwa's FORD-Kenya party.

With determination to fight graft and implement key economic reforms,
hopes are that the NARC government might succeed in reviving the ailing
economy.