Rift widens in ruling coalition

While previous grumbling over lop-sided power-sharing arrangements were largely dismissed as teething problems of the ruling15-member National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), concerted calls early this month by a group of MPs close to president Mwai Kibaki, for the sacking of the influential cabinet minister, Raila Odinga, are raising concern that two principal partners might go their separate ways earlier than expected. Raila, a prominent player in the coalition credited with historical opposition unity that ousted the then formidable Kanu in the last elections, is increasingly coming under scathing fire from those opposed to his quest for the creation of the post of the executive prime minister that was part of the pre-election pact. Analysts now contend that the coalition that gave Kenyans so much hope ten months ago, has now boiled down to a war of nerves between the 72-year old president Kibaki, and the equally influential Raila to the detriment of the much yearned-for good governance and the fight against corruption. In the meantime, international donors and Kenya's development partners are watching the squabbling within the ruling coalition with keen interests, amidst fears that the much needed aid and foreign investments might not be forthcoming amidst signs of instability. Adding fuel to the fire in the now open differences over the devolution of the immense presidential powers between the National Alliance Party of Kenya (NAK), allied to president Kibaki, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), allied to Raila, is the September 14 murder of Dr Chrispine Odhiambo Mbai, a leading constitutional review official and Raila's confidante. There is now no doubt that the recent naming in parliament, of the NARC chief whip, Norman Nyagah, as the the alleged "financier", has undermined all efforts to bring unity in government in the near future, even as some NAK operatives point finger at the former ruling party Kanu for using the murder to further divide the ruling coalition. As it is, the emotional uproar in and out of parliament that followed the naming of Nyagah, was just the culmination of the belied, but intense fresh round of tension that have been growing within the ruling coalition since September 26 when the technical working committee on the Executive at the constitutional conference settled for a hybrid system of government after much haggling. A city NARC MP and a confidant of president Kibaki Maina Kamanda, was emphatic that the controversy over the murder was just part of the "scheme" by Raila to undermine president Mwai Kibaki's government, an allegation that Raila has since denied. "Why is that it is his people who continue to make noise when we know that he has not been satisfied with the current arrangements," asserted Kamanda, who is similarly convinced that Kanu was instrumental in politicising the Mbai murder and pushing it to parliament. LDP wing and Kanu MPs, on their part maintained that they were merely responding to what they are convinced are half-hearted investigations into the murder. Nick Salat, one of the vocal youthful Kanu MPs, would however hear none of it. As he put it, "Since the murder had political undertones, the government must be seen to be neutral in its investigations without reading politics into those who are calling for the apprehension of the culprits". "Obviously," he continued, "There is lack of harmony within NARC and I don't think they can convince anybody by pinning the dissatisfaction within their ranks on us," argued Salat, who further added that Kanu is simply playing its role as the opposition to ensure that justice is done and that there is no sacred cows be it murders or corruption". Thus, "harmony" is the byword as observers watch how the 15-party conglomerate is going to forge cohesion in parliament following the bitter fallout and with key government-sponsored bills such as the Presidential Pensions Bill and the Anti-Terrorism Bill, pending in parliament. Notably, the growing tension within the coalition in and outside parliament, has raised questions on how NARC MPs will be marshalled to support government bills in parliament as had been requested by president Kibaki, taking into account that the the government chief whip has now publicly shown irreconcilable differences with a section of NARC membership. Unless probably the party decides to replace Nyagah as the chief whip, it would be interesting to see how he will cast aside his anger after being accused of murder, to lobby the same accusers to support important government bills. In cognisant of the fact that the divisions within the government are far too entrenched to guarantee automatic passage of government-sponsored legislation, president Kibaki, was on September 30 forced to call a NARC parliamentary group (PG) meeting which sought to appeal to party members to speak with one voice and avoid giving the public and potential investors mixed signals. The PG, held at the commencement of the second session of the ninth parliament, resolved to have similar meetings every fortnight as a means of ironing out differences over power-sharing arrangements that have dogged the coalition since NARC took power on December 30 last year. Yet, the murder issue, might just destroy all the efforts towards unity that have been put in place since then, especially after the less-belligerent vice-president, Moody Awori, was ostensibly assigned the duty of a "peace maker". Seemingly, Awori's recent appointment to the vice-presidency, after the death of his predecessor, Michael Wamalwa, is yet to reduce the rift within the coalition, despite the fact that his elevation has since forced the LDP wing to tone down their demands for the implementation of the controversial memorandum of understanding (MOU). Besides worries over government business in the house, the outbreak of fresh disputes over the Dr Mbai murder has added fuel to the already volatile situation at the constitutional conference set to resume on November 17. Kamanda is optimistic that the passage of government-sponsored bills will not be a problem, but is convinced that the only way NARC can speak with one voice on the contentious constitutional issues, is when NARC transforms itself into a single party through grassroots elections. This however, appears to be a pipe dream as both LDP and Ford-Kenya, have declared that they are not ready to dissolve their parties in favour of a monolithic entity. Analysts are also convinced that the recent bitter differences courtesy of the murder, was just a continuation of the entrenched positions over the devolution of the presidential powers that were manifested in the disparate positions the protagonists took over the call for a referendum immediately after the adjournment of the National Constitutional Conference