Rift widens in ruling coalition

While previous grumbling over lop-sided power-sharing arrangements were
largely dismissed as teething problems of the ruling15-member National
Rainbow Coalition (NARC), concerted calls early this month by a group of
MPs close to president Mwai Kibaki, for the sacking of the influential
cabinet minister, Raila Odinga, are raising concern that two principal
partners might go their separate ways earlier than expected.

Raila, a prominent player in the coalition credited with historical
opposition unity that ousted the then formidable Kanu in the last
elections, is increasingly coming under scathing fire from those opposed
to his quest for the creation of the post of the executive prime
minister that was part of the pre-election pact.

Analysts now contend that the coalition that gave Kenyans so much hope
ten months ago, has now boiled down to a war of nerves between the
72-year old president Kibaki, and the equally influential Raila to the
detriment of the much yearned-for good governance and the fight against
corruption.

In the meantime, international donors and Kenya's development partners
are watching the squabbling within the ruling coalition with keen
interests, amidst fears that the much needed aid and foreign investments
might not be forthcoming amidst signs of instability.

Adding fuel to the fire in the now open differences over the devolution
of the immense presidential powers between the National Alliance Party
of Kenya (NAK), allied to president Kibaki, and the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP), allied to Raila, is the September 14 murder of Dr Chrispine
Odhiambo Mbai, a leading constitutional review official and Raila's
confidante.

There is now no doubt that the recent naming in parliament, of the NARC
chief whip, Norman Nyagah, as the the alleged "financier", has
undermined all efforts to bring unity in government in the near future,
even as some NAK operatives point finger at the former ruling party Kanu
for using the murder to further divide the ruling coalition.

As it is, the emotional uproar in and out of parliament that followed
the naming of Nyagah, was just the culmination of the belied, but
intense fresh round of tension that have been growing within the ruling
coalition since September 26 when the technical working committee on the
Executive at the constitutional conference settled for a hybrid system
of government after much haggling.

A city NARC MP and a confidant of president Kibaki Maina Kamanda, was
emphatic that the controversy over the murder was just part of the
"scheme" by Raila to undermine president Mwai Kibaki's government, an
allegation that Raila has since denied.

"Why is that it is his people who continue to make noise when we know
that he has not been satisfied with the current arrangements," asserted
Kamanda, who is similarly convinced that Kanu was instrumental in
politicising the Mbai murder and pushing it to parliament.

LDP wing and Kanu MPs, on their part maintained that they were merely
responding to what they are convinced are half-hearted investigations
into the murder. Nick Salat, one of the vocal youthful Kanu MPs, would
however hear none of it.

As he put it, "Since the murder had political undertones, the government
must be seen to be neutral in its investigations without reading
politics into those who are calling for the apprehension of the
culprits".

"Obviously," he continued, "There is lack of harmony within NARC and I
don't think they can convince anybody by pinning the dissatisfaction
within their ranks on us," argued Salat, who further added that Kanu is
simply playing its role as the opposition to ensure that justice is done
and that there is no sacred cows be it murders or corruption".

Thus, "harmony" is the byword as observers watch how the 15-party
conglomerate is going to forge cohesion in parliament following the
bitter fallout and with key government-sponsored bills such as the
Presidential Pensions Bill and the Anti-Terrorism Bill, pending in
parliament.

Notably, the growing tension within the coalition in and outside
parliament, has raised questions on how NARC MPs will be marshalled to
support government bills in parliament as had been requested by
president Kibaki, taking into account that the the government chief whip
has now publicly shown irreconcilable differences with a section of NARC
membership.

Unless probably the party decides to replace Nyagah as the chief whip,
it would be interesting to see how he will cast aside his anger after
being accused of murder, to lobby the same accusers to support important
government bills.

In cognisant of the fact that the divisions within the government are
far too entrenched to guarantee automatic passage of
government-sponsored legislation, president Kibaki, was on September 30
forced to call a NARC parliamentary group (PG) meeting which sought to
appeal to party members to speak with one voice and avoid giving the
public and potential investors mixed signals.

The PG, held at the commencement of the second session of the ninth
parliament, resolved to have similar meetings every fortnight as a means
of ironing out differences over power-sharing arrangements that have
dogged the coalition since NARC took power on December 30 last year.

Yet, the murder issue, might just destroy all the efforts towards unity
that have been put in place since then, especially after the
less-belligerent vice-president, Moody Awori, was ostensibly assigned
the duty of a "peace maker".

Seemingly, Awori's recent appointment to the vice-presidency, after the
death of his predecessor, Michael Wamalwa, is yet to reduce the rift
within the coalition, despite the fact that his elevation has since
forced the LDP wing to tone down their demands for the implementation of
the controversial memorandum of understanding (MOU).

Besides worries over government business in the house, the outbreak of
fresh disputes over the Dr Mbai murder has added fuel to the already
volatile situation at the constitutional conference set to resume on
November 17.

Kamanda is optimistic that the passage of government-sponsored bills
will not be a problem, but is convinced that the only way NARC can speak
with one voice on the contentious constitutional issues, is when NARC
transforms itself into a single party through grassroots elections.

This however, appears to be a pipe dream as both LDP and Ford-Kenya,
have declared that they are not ready to dissolve their parties in
favour of a monolithic entity.

Analysts are also convinced that the recent bitter differences courtesy
of the murder, was just a continuation of the entrenched positions over
the devolution of the presidential powers that were manifested in the
disparate positions the protagonists took over the call for a referendum
immediately after the adjournment of the National Constitutional
Conference