Africa: Population Explosion Worrying – UN Report

By George Okore

The African population is growing rapidly with more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 when the total world population is projected to reach 9.6 billion.

According to newly released United Nations report titled World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision, African population could more than double by mid-century, increasing from 1.1 billion today to 2.4 billion in 2050, and potentially reaching 4.2 billion by 2100. It notes that India expected to become world’s largest country, passing China around 2028, while Nigeria could surpass United States by 2050.

By the end of the century, Nigeria could start to rival China as the second most populous country in the world. By 2100 there could be several other African countries with populations over 200 million, namely Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Uganda and Niger.

In response to the challenges, some African countries have embarked on nationwide campaigns to control birth rate. Kenya for example, is encouraging modern family methods especially among youths. Apart from conventional media, National Coordination Agency on Population and Development (NCPD) Director Boniface Koyugi says they use social media to relay the messages that three percent rapid population growth was due to inadequate family planning.

With the rapid global population explosion, experts are pushing two clear strategies for sustainable future by greater reproductive choice and measures to reduce resource consumption and waste are critical to reducing humanity's environmental impact. The combined measures of empowering women to make their own decisions about childbearing and significantly reducing global consumption of energy and natural resources would move humanity toward rather than further away from environmentally sustainable societies that meet human needs.

In 15 high-fertility countries of sub-Saharan Africa, estimated average number of children per woman has been adjusted upwards by more than 5 per cent. “In some cases, the actual level of fertility appears to have risen in recent years. In other cases, the previous estimate was too low,” said John Wilmoth, Director of Population Division in UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Regardless of the uncertainty surrounding the future population of Africa, the region will play a central role in shaping the size and distribution of world population during this century. The current world population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase by almost one billion people within the next twelve years, reaching 8.1 billion in 2025 and 9.6 billion in 2050.

The report acknowledges that most population growth will occur in developing regions, which are projected to increase from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050. During the same period, the population of developed regions will remain largely unchanged at around 1.3 billion people. Growth is expected to be most rapid in the 49 least developed countries, which are projected to double in size from around 900 million inhabitants in 2013 to 1.8 billion in 2050.
 
At the country level, much of the overall increase between now and 2050 is projected to take place in high-fertility countries, mainly in Africa, as well as countries with large populations such as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United States.  “Although population growth has slowed for the world as a whole, this report reminds us that some developing countries, especially in Africa, are still growing rapidly,” said Wu Hongbo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

He says despite many countries experiencing major reductions in average family size, many African countries   have high-fertility with an average woman has 5 or more children.   Life expectancy is projected to increase in developed and developing countries in future years, according to the report. Over the next 40 years, life expectancy at birth is expected to continue on a similar path.

 
Life expectancy is projected to increase in Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which include many countries highly affected by HIV/AIDS. Life expectancy at birth in LDCs was estimated to be 58 years in 2005-2010 but likely to reach about 70 years in 2045-2050, and 78 years by 2095-2100. Population ageing is less advanced in developing regions, especially in countries where fertility remains relatively high.