Climate Change a Threat to MDGs Feat, Must Dominate Debates Even after 2015

 By Henry Neondo

NAIROBI--The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are eight international development goals that were officially established following the Millennium Summit of the United Nations in 2000, following the adoption of the United Nations Millennium Declaration. All 193 United Nations member states and at least 23 international organizations agreed to achieve these goals by the year 2015.

According to Mithika, increasing temperatures and changing climatic conditions is already having major effects on food production contributing to rising prices in food exacerbated by false solutions (rush to biofuels) besides threatening poverty reduction efforts of developing countries that still depend on agriculture and climate sensitive natural resources and lacking the capacities to manage climate risks.

He said thanks to changing climate, rainfall and temperatures are affected and thus impacting food production which in turn led to heightened food insecurity and affected nutrition levels in many communities.

He added that Climate change also threatens the achievement of other MDGs and may even reverse gains already made (stern, 2009). Water scarcity, resource degradation and rising food prices may impact women – often responsible for household water, firewood and food supplies – with implications for MDG 3 on gender equality.

 “This has increased the risk of diseases, with implications on MDG 4,5 and 6 on child mortality, maternal mortality and HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Decision makers need to ready themselves to such uncertainties. The post 2015 agenda should be adaptable to the opportunities and challenges posed by climate change,” he said.

According to Mithika, when the MDGs came into force in 2000, several governments resisted the inclusion of climate change.

MDG7 (Ensuring Environmental Sustainability) states that “ a decisive response to climate change is urgently needed”, but a criticism of the MDGs remains their lack of focus on tackling climate change.

But with the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 2007 which predicted temperature rises of 1.1 - 6.4 °C (2 - 11.5 °F) by 2100’ triggered increased action from many countries.

According to the report, Africa is headed for 1.5 degrees temperature rise by 2050. Many of the studies show that we could be up to 4-6% warming by the end of the century. Historical records show that less than 2 degrees warming leads to sea level rise of up to 20 meters.

Scientists have historical crop data – for years that are more than 1 degree warmer, there are crop losses of 30% for maize for 75% of Africa’s maize growing regions.

Climate negotiations recognize that climate change must be addressed as part of sustainable development – crucial for developing countries that are prioritizing economic growth. But it is proving hard to cut carbon emissions in the context of sustainable development which requires equity and poverty reduction.

The development model after Rio+20 has until now embraced climate change – green economy in the context of sustainable development is indeed movement towards low-carbon development pathways as the current model of development is no longer sustainable.

But Mithika noted with concern the separate responses to Climate Change and poverty with little reference to each other. “Could the post-2015 discussions increase consideration of poverty concerns with climate change responses? If not what are the implications?” he asked.

 He said any post 2015 agenda to reduce poverty sustainably needs to be ‘climate-proofed’ with the flexibility and resources to ensure that communities adapt to climate change and get protection against negative impacts.

The needed climate funds will surpass current development expenditure. At the Copenhagen climate summit, developed countries pledged to scale up climate funding to $ 100 billion per year from private and public sources by 2020. “Could this finance a post – 2015 agenda?” he asked.

With the second commitment of the Kyoto Protocol beginning in January 2013 and ending in 2010 as per the outcome of the just concluded COP 18 and the MDG deadline in 2015, there is a window to bring climate change and poverty reduction communities together.