Sudan/South Sudan: Will the AU Accord Quell the Likely Conflict?

By George Okore

ADDIS ABABA---The African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council has finally agreed on a road map aimed at putting an end to tensions between Sudan and South Sudan, which had sharply deteriorated over the past weeks.

Chairperson  Jean Ping delivered to  AU Peace and Security Council on Tuesday, a road map that  notably requires  immediate end to  military operations, withdrawal of army from each other’s  territory and  cessation of support to rebel groups operating in the territory of the other State.

The roadmap also demands respect by both parties of commitments previously entered into, notably with respect to implementation of a joint border monitoring mechanism and a transitional arrangement for Abyei area. The road map has been supported by the international communities, which are urging the parties to implement it without further delay.

Analysts fear that the Sudan and South Sudan are edging closer to war, majorly precipitated by a dispute over oil, which propels the economies of both countries. South Sudan broke away from Sudan in July 2011 but has been unable to agree on terms for using the North’s oil pipeline, its only route for selling its oil.

Emotions have been running high and neither side showing willingness to step back from the brink or suggest realistic proposals for negotiations. The shut-down of oil production created a new situation in which South Sudan does not have finances to contribute to Sudan’s budget.

The Government of South Sudan (GoSS) spokesperson Barnaba Marial Benjamin had said in Nairobi last month they will not withdraw Forces from Heglig unless the fighting stops, African Union acts as guarantor of ceasefire, Sudanese forces move from contested border region of Abyei and accord reached on border demarcations.

The disagreement peaked in January, when South Sudan shut off production entirely   rather than pay what it said was exorbitant fees to transport its oil through Sudan. A military row quickly ensued, culminating into seizure by South Sudan‘s army of the main Heglig oilfield controlled by Sudan on April 10.

President Bashir promised to retake Heglig and liberate South Sudan from its government. There has been intense fighting between the armies of the two countries, mostly in and around Heglig. That conflict has poisoned relations between the two countries, generating humanitarian crisis, undermining viability of both States and jeopardizing the security of the entire region.

The failure both States to agree on the terms of separations is also part of the dispute. It is noteworthy that South Sudan peacefully won independence last year, after putting off negotiations on a long list of contentious issues. These include border   demarcation and establishing citizens’ rights for southerners living the North and vice versa.

But top of the list was how to jointly manage the oil industry, which accounts for 98 percent of South’s income and major income earner in the North. When negotiations resumed late last year, both sides adopted stubborn positions and the talks collapsed. Worried by failures to reach a deal and Khartoum moves to seize some of its oil destined for export prompted GoSS to shut down production entirely. 

The shut-down of production in Heglig, which until earlier this month provided nearly half of Sudan's oil production, further complicated the issue. The situation was made farcical by diplomatic deadlock created by deteriorating security on both sides of the border.  GoSS accused Khartoum of sponsoring rebellions within its borders. Series of conflicts erupted mostly along Border States populated by groups sympathetic to the South like South Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile.

Characteristically, Khartoum reacted with indiscriminate force, killing civilians and displacing populations, a move that bred more rebellion against it. Last November they announced the formation of Sudan Revolutionary Front and declared their intention to topple President Bashir.

As usual, Khartoum accused Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) of arming the rebels. The rising tide of mutual resentment, exaggerated the punishing effects of oil shutdown.  Furthermore, the bravado of the two ill-disciplined armies made lingering altercation most likely.

The situation worsened by occupation of SPLM of oilfield widely regarded as lying in Sudan. South Sudan found itself boxed into the corner of an aggressor and international society led by United Nations and United States demanded it immediately withdraw from Heglig.