Guinea: ICG Warns of Possible Violence Ahead of Elections
By Staff Writer
Dakar—The International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that unless Guinea’s main political actors agree on organising the pending legislative elections, there is a risk inter-communal tensions could spark violence that opens the army’s way back to power.
In its latest report Guinea: Putting the Transition Back on Track, the Brussels-based think tank warns that President Alpha Condé’s unilateral effort to overhaul the electoral system has gained little praise, and that with his party’s gloomy prospects for the legislative elections, suspicion is increasing.
“The legacy of Condé’s election is cause for some concern because it gave new impetus to the idea that Guinea’s history is a struggle between its four major ethno-regional blocs”, says Vincent Foucher, Crisis Group’s Senior West Africa Analyst. “Moreover, Condé has done too little too late to promote reconciliation and dialogue with the active opposition”.
Condé’s accession to power in 2010 provided an extraordinary opportunity to end 50 years of authoritarianism and economic stagnation, but his government faces immense challenges with limited means. The authorities show willingness to provide good economic and financial governance, but strict budgetary discipline will depress the economy, at least in the short term.
It is worrying that dialogue with the opposition has begun only recently and with much ambiguity. Although the security forces were responsible for the worst violence during the presidential election, political mobilisation along ethnic lines sparked clashes and claimed victims. Organisational weaknesses of the electoral process fed these tensions by prompting fraud claims at every stage. The new government has done little to cope with this grim legacy, being slow to organise the legislative elections, which are indis-pensable for completing the institutional arrangements required by the constitution.
Because another period of electoral instability could endanger the young democracy, the government must convince the opposition to discuss electoral arrangements at the highest level, and all political actors must refrain from stirring up inter-ethnic tensions. President Condé should urgently engage in direct, periodic dialogue with the leaders of the most important parties at least until the legislative assembly is in place.
Guinea can afford neither a makeshift electoral system, nor a new campaign based on ethnic factors. Rising pre-electoral tensions could spark inter-communal violence and offer an opportunity to take action for those in the army unhappy about loss of power. The 19 July military attack launched by some soldiers on the presidential residence confirmed this is a real possibility. A genuine agreement between the main political actors on the organisation of the legislative elections is crucial and urgent. Without the international community’s significant involvement, chances of success are slim.
The international community, which partly withdrew after Condé came to power, must accompany this new stage of the transition, providing guarantees for the legislative elections as it did for the presidential election. The UN, the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should work with the government to define a calendar for priority tasks, especially security sector reform and national reconciliation.
“Further delaying the elections is not an option: it would only worsen tensions, and a legislature based on a popular mandate is urgently needed”, says Gilles Yabi, Crisis Group’s West Africa Project Director. “To consolidate the transition toward a solid democracy, all political actors should abandon mobilisation along regional and ethnical lines”.
The failure of the 19 July attempt against the president’s life indicates that, for the moment at least, it has the military hierarchy’s support. Condé has consolidated the normalisation process begun by his predecessor, General Sékouba Konaté, and sent the army back to the barracks and away from Conakry. The imposition of heavy security measures since 19 July, however, has set the process back. Security sector reform is still at a preliminary stage. The new authorities show willingness to provide good economic and financial governance, but strict budgetary discipline will depress the economy, at least in the short term, so they are trying to compensate by responding to social demands, importing food and improving electricity supply. There are indications of an ambitious long-term economic restructuring programme.
The suspicions generated by the electoral system risk accentuating tensions in certain areas and leading to inter-communal violence. This could in turn spark reprisals elsewhere in the country or provoke a brutal reaction from an army that 19 July showed is still divided about the return to a civilian government capable of putting an end to crude activities of illicit enrichment.
ICG recommends that President Conde should engage in direct and periodic political dialogue with the leaders of the most important parties (those that received more than a certain percentage of the votes in the first round of the presidential election, 5 per cent, for example), at least until the legislative assembly is in place.