South Sudan: Time for Reality Check

By George Okore

JUBA---After the birth of Republic of South Sudan, three serous issues-sharing oil revenues, Nile waters and violence in South Kordofan need immediate attention by President Salva Kiir administration.

The administration must immediately guarantee transparency and accountability in the oil sector as signs of commitment to sustainable development and combating corruption. Convincingly, the new administration is currently developing Petroleum Law to form the legal framework governing the sector. The previous 50-50 wealth-sharing of revenues from southern oil, officially concluded on July 9. Since the end of last year, both sides have been engaged in negotiations over how they will manage the oil sector post-secession.

Lack of transparent management under the just elapsed oil deal had fuelled mistrust between North and South, risking return to conflict when the south claimed it was being cheated out of revenues as main reason for its temporary pullout from shared government in 2007. The situation was tenser when discrepancies arose between oil production figures published by Sudanese government and those published by the country’s main oil company.

Dana Wilkins, a campaigner with Global Witness campaigner says that in order to ensure the sector is managed responsibly and benefits all citizens, the new law must contain detailed transparency and accountability provisions from the start. The two states must immediately come to an interim agreement on how to transport southern oil through the northern pipelines and port until a final deal can be agreed. The absence of an interim deal could result in either side attempting to shut down the flow of oil, a move which would greatly increase the risk of a return to war.

Secondly, the new country also adds a new dimension to the colonial-era quotas for use of Nile water, which East African states want to be urgently reviewed. The Blue Nile rises in Ethiopia and provides 85 percent of the overall flow of the river. The White Nile flows north from Kenya's Lake Victoria, through Uganda and into Sudan, where it meets with the Blue Nile at the Sudanese capital Khartoum for northward flow towards Egypt.

The 1929 agreement was signed between Egypt and Britain, which represented at the time Uganda, Kenya, Tanganyika (now Tanzania) and Sudan. The document gave Cairo the right to veto projects higher up the Nile that would affect its water share. The 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan, supplemented the previous agreement giving Egypt right to 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water annually and Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters per year.

Both agreements have created resentment among other 10 Nile states and calls for changes to the pact that have been resisted by Egypt. It is not clear if Egypt will change that position with a new, elected government, which Cairo recognized immediately.

Another urgent challenge- fighting across the border in South Kordofan, is casting doubts over the prospects for peace.  The situation is made worse by denying aid agencies access to the affected areas. Excluded from the ground, the international community find themselves with nobody to talk to. Therefore, stakeholders must put in place, local organizations, with the capacity, contacts, and courage to respond rapidly and effectively to the challenges in the region.

For long-term, sustainable peace, international community needs to recognize and work with local peace builders. High-level political negotiations are indeed essential, but so too is building a commitment to peace on the ground; and when political negotiations fail, this grassroots rejection of violence may be the only thing preventing wider conflict. In Sudan’s many complex conflicts, insights from locals are invaluable, and their views need to be fed into the longer-term planning. The international community needs to make sure this work is supported, both now and after this crisis is over. 

Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG) warns of long-suppressed grievances and simmering political disputes that not addressed, risks recreating the kind of centralised, authoritarian and ultimately unstable state it finally managed to escape.  “SPLM should recognize that meaningful opposition is necessary for stability and legitimate rule. Opposition parties share responsibility for pursuing common national interests, shouldering national responsibilities and developing a robust multi-party system”, says Zach Vertin, Crisis Group Sudan Analyst.