South Sudan: No Easy Walk to Independence
By Eric Sande
JUBA---In July, three months from now South Sudan will be declared an independent nation after voting to secede in a referendum in January. The plebiscite was conducted in accordance with the provision in the peace deal signed in 2005 to end 21 years of civil war between the North and South.
The newly founded independent state has an uphill task to upgrade its current interim constitution from its sub-national status while the region has been semi-autonomous for the last six years, to a national constitution. It also seeks consensus among the political parties in the region.
Sudan president, Omar al-Bashir has pledged the Khartoum government’s full backing and support in this transitional period.
Thousands of southerners have come back home after many years in the north to face the stark reality of a severe lack of infrastructure and basic services. It narrows down to the tough challenges the young government of Southern Sudan has to confront in a nation full of high expectations but little infrastructure to match, some of which are self-inflicted.
"Unfortunately, we notice that there is a lot of complaining, divisions and insurgency, because the government in the South has serious problems in dealing with its people. [The Sudan People's Liberation Movement] have all the rights, and others who are not with the liberation movement don't have any rights," said Bashir in an interview with the Guardian.
"Inside the liberation movement there are influential groups controlling everything, authority and money, while other groups are being marginalized," he added.
Bashir warned that the South could become an instant failed state unless divisions within the ruling party, a string of violent tribal insurgencies, and governance issues such as chronic corruption were not quickly addressed.
Last year, a leadership forum of the political parties was established under the chairmanship of the president of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and chairman of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), Salva Kiir Mayardit, as a platform for reaching the much needed consensus among the political forces on the transition to statehood and future governance of the region.
During the review of the interim constitution of Southern Sudan, eleven political parties were represented in the process before several of them withdrew their membership from the technical committee in protest of what they described as a lack of consensus in the exercise.
Dissidents accused the ruling SPLM of abandoning a consensus as the basis for the agreement with other political parties in the amendment of the constitution. It also accused the SPLM of adding dozens of its members to the committee, in order to block other parties’ contributions, using a simple majority vote in favour of the party’s position.
Social and economic indicators in the world, according to United Nations reports put South Sudan in a deplorable state. Illiteracy rates are high, with three-quarters of southerners being illiterate. The region has few schools, and most are dilapidated.
Health indicators are wanting: the mortality rate for children under five years old is 112 for every 1,000 children, and the maternal mortality is at 2,000 deaths for every 100,000 live births, one of the highest in the world.
"Inside the liberation movement there are influential groups controlling everything, authority and money, while other groups are being marginalized," reiterated Bashir.
According to Lisa Grande, a senior UN humanitarian relief coordinator, 80,000 people have fled their homes since the independence referendum following clashes between the South Sudanese army and rebel militias, and a spate of inter-tribal disputes.
The South Sudan government offered an amnesty earlier this month to rebel militias, following hundreds of deaths in sporadic clashes.
It is believed that the violence is centered on the oil-producing South Kordofan region, a so-called "contested area" under the CPA which is claimed by both sides. Militias reportedly killed 17 people there this month ahead of delayed governorship and state assembly elections.
The South has accused Ahmed Haroun, the North's candidate for governor, who is wanted by the ICC for alleged Darfur war crimes, of using militia to intimidate the local population. Khartoum has also been accused of supplying weapons to insurgents in Upper Nile state, which is part of the South. It denies the accusations.
Deep rooted ethnic loyalties and tribalism need also to be addressed. The recurrent ethnic conflicts over resources could be a serious stumbling block to the stability of the new nation set to be Africa’s 54th in July.
Analysts contend that for real development to take place, South Sudan must ensure effective representation of women in all governance processes, something that was reiterated by Vice President Riak Machar during the International Women’s Day held on March 8th.
A report by the independent International Crisis Group, published this month, echoed Bashir's warning of continuing instability. It urged the SPLM to encourage "an opening of political space in which a vibrant multi-party system can grow" and pointed to the threat posed by "a series of armed insurgencies, recent militia activity, and army defections [that] highlight internal fault lines and latent grievances".