Burundi: On the Brink of Another Civil War
By Staff Writer
BUJUMBURA---Burundi risks reversing the decade of progress it has enjoyed since its civil war ended unless the government resumes political dialogue with the opposition. This is according to a new report by the international Crisis Group (ICG) think tank. The report---Burundi: From Electoral Boycott to political Impasse---examines the serious problems that have developed in the wake of last year's elections that ended in a landside victory for the ruling party, including marginalisation of the opposition and the emergence of violent political banditry. Against a backdrop of weak governance, this combination threatens a major setback for democracy in the still fragile state.
“The ruling party is in effect reinforcing a nascent rebellion and doing harm to democracy by marginalising and repressing the opposition”, says Thierry Vircoulon, Crisis Group's Central Africa Project Director.
Following announcement that the ruling Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie et Forces de Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD) had received 64 per cent of the vote in local elections that all national and international observers considered were free and fair, the opposition parties denounced “massive electoral fraud”. However, all national and international observers, the media and civil society recognised the vote as free and fair, despite some irregularities.
When their demands were rejected, most boycotted the remaining elections, resulting in overwhelming victories for the ruling party – 91 per cent of the vote in the presidential contest and 81 per cent and 94 per cent respectively in those for the lower and upper houses of the legislature – which thereby consolidated its control over all state institutions.
Subsequently, the opposition formed a coalition and called for dismissal of the electoral commission and cancellation of the results. When their demands were rejected, most boycotted the contests for president and the legislature, which resulted in overwhelming victories for the ruling party. On the pretext that there had been violent incidents during the presidential vote, the security services arrested many members of the opposition, while its main leaders left the country or went underground.
Crisis Group recommends that to halt this post-electoral authoritarian trend, the institutional dialogue between all political actors should be resumed within the framework of a reorganised permanent party forum. The government and the opposition must engage urgently in talks to improve the political and security context. They also need to agree on a law on the status of the opposition guaranteeing political freedom, freedom of assembly and an end to arbitrary arrests. Opposition leaders, in turn, should denounce publicly all acts of violence and renounce violence as a political tool.
The international community and religious leaders must press government and opposition alike to restart talks without delay, in order to end the political impasse, and put pressure on the government to respect its commitments regarding human rights, governance and rule of law.
Six months after a string of landslide electoral victories by the ruling Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie et Forces de Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD-FDD), Burundi is descending ever deeper into a political impasse that risks reversing a decade’s progress. Instead of strengthening democracy, the 2010 communal, parliamentary and presidential elections ended in the marginalisation of the opposition – a major element of which (the Forces Nationales de Libération, FNL) went underground – and in the emergence of a new rebellion. Combined with a weak governance system, this could lead to a democratic setback. Only resumption of political dialogue between government and opposition, the end of the FNL’s clandestine activities and the strengthening of democratic institutions can reverse the dangerous trend. The international community must encourage these steps before it is too late.
“Six months after the elections, the breakdown of dialogue between the main opposition parties and the government remains, and the violent political banditry is worrying”, says Comfort Ero, Crisis Group's Africa Program Director. “Burundi has made significant progress in consolidating peace in recent years, but it remains a fragile state that still requires international engagement”.
On the pretext that there had been violent incidents during the presidential elections, the security services arrested many members of the opposition in June and July 2010. To avoid arrest, the main ADC leaders left the country or went underground. After the chairman of the FNL, Agathon Rwasa, took the latter course, the leadership of his movement was taken over by a dissident minority with the support of the authorities. There have been frequent clashes since then between the security forces and unidentified armed men in the west of the country. Even though the latter are designated as “armed bandits” by the authorities, there is no doubt about the links between them and some opposition leaders. Burundi is not near a return to full civil war, but by marginalising and repressing the opposition, the CNDD-FDD is in effect reinforcing a nascent rebellion and doing harm to democracy.
Since the elections, there have been no official talks between the opposition parties and the government, and the permanent forum of political parties has become an empty shell. At the same time, the new government has inherited serious governance problems. Growing corruption, lack of an independent justice system, weak oversight institutions and a stalled transitional justice agenda are each immediate threats to democratic consolidation. Moreover, full integration of Burundi into the East African Community (EAC) may require a constitutional review that will be an opportunity to either strengthen or weaken democratic institutions. The crisis risks spilling across the border to the eastern Congo, where FNL fighters have re-formed links with armed groups in the Kivu region.
Despite the deteriorating political and security context, attempts to defuse the crisis have been limited. Several local organisations and some international partners have called for dialogue and restraint, but for the most part, the international community has been slow to act, despite the leverage its aid provides. To halt the dangerous trends, the institutional dialogue between all the political actors should be resumed within the framework of a reorganised permanent forum of the political parties. Likewise, a programme for consolidation of democratic governance that involves strengthened institutional checks and balances as well as civil society initiatives needs to be jointly defined and implemented. Simultaneously, religious leaders, through the ecumenical conference, should mediate between the FNL and the government in order to bring Rwasa back into politics and end clandestine activities by his supporters.