Tanzania: Uproar Over Confusing Opinion Polls

By Henry Neondo

As the East Africa’s largest country gears towards presidential elections, controversy has built up over the past week concerning results of recent opinion surveys.

Opinion released early last week show the challenger, Dr Wilibrod Slaa of the Chama cha Demokrasia na Mageuzi, the (Democratic Party for Change) leads his opponent, the incumbent president Jakaya Kikwete of Chama cha Mapinduzi (Revolutionary Party which has ruled the country since independence) by close to 4 percentage points.

Dr Slaa is said to be favourite among the middle class in urban areas.

Unofficial poll released to the media by the Synovate firm placed the challenger at 44 per cent of those intending to vote. 41 per cent of those intending to vote were said had Kikwete as their choice while veteran Civic Union Front Chairman, Prof Ibrahim Lipumba comes a distant third.

However, the poll results could not be declared publicly as unofficial reports say the agency was influenced by the government officials to shelve announcing it.

And as the Synovate shelved public announcement of the Polls, government-run newspapers went ahead to publish their own polls the claim to have conducted and which showed the incumbent heading for a major victory at 71 per cent.

The CCM campaign manager Col. Abdulrahman Kinana however announced his own party projections which show the incumbent winning by 80 per cent.

A political analyst in the country says the CCM is bent to maintain the usual image, where the party wins by a range of votes from 60 per cent to 80 per cent.

Meanwhile, human rights activists have raised a red flag over inability by some political parties to deploy agents at polling centres due to financial constraints.

A member of the association of political parties without parliamentary representation, Elizabeth Masanja, said some parties have even failed to conduct election campaigns due to lack of funds, adding that they will not therefore manage to pay the agents to guard their votes.

“You cannot deploy agents at a polling station from morning to evening without paying them and expect the same persons to guard your votes. It will be difficult for them to do so,” she said.

An activist from Legal and Human Rights Centre, Onesmo Olengurumwa, said the activists were not capable of preventing theft of votes at polling stations.