US, China Urged to Leverage Sudan Peace
By Philip Emase
Sudan must dismantle its system of impunity for peace to be achieved in Darfur, an independent crisis monitoring group has said.
In a report titled Sudan: Justice, Peace and the ICC, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has blamed Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and his ruling National Congress Party (NCP) for reluctance in resolving the country’s various crises, most notably the conflict in Darfur, and warns that simmering tensions between Khartoum and the semi-autonomous South could erupt into a fresh civil war.
The report suggests that influential countries involved in the Sudan situation - especially the United States and China - can help compel Bashir to enact meaningful policy reforms, including the complete implementation of a 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the NCP and the former rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
“The best way to do so is to reconfirm their support for the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants, including the one issued against President Bashir in March, and to deliver a firm message that they will only consider a UN Security Council resolution suspending execution if Khartoum first makes those reforms”, the report suggests.
The report describes the current NCP-dominated government as “centralised, exploitative and unaccountable”, saying it has not made any genuine attempts to deal with systemic crimes and lack of accountability.
It also accuses the NCP of shirking its obligation to tackle impunity, repeal repressive laws and conduct a credible census in preparation for elections early next year.
As per the provisions of the CPA, Sudan is scheduled to hold national elections in early 2010, followed by a 2011 referendum in which South Sudan, a region currently governed with limited autonomy by the SPLM, will decide whether to remain part of a unified Sudan or to secede altogether.
Last March, the ICC indicted Bashir for five counts of crimes against humanity and two counts of war crimes. Bashir reacted by expelling 13 international aid agencies which the UN says were providing subsistence food to 1.1 million people, health care for 1.5 million and safe drinking water for more than one million people in Darfur alone.
The report asserts that violence has intensified in Darfur since September 2008, with opposition and rebel groups toughening their stances.
“Perceiving Bashir to be weakened by the arrest warrant, these groups have hardened their positions and are even more reluctant to engage genuinely with the government,” the report says.
The African Union, the Arab League and China have called for the suspension of the warrant, arguing that arresting Bashir would destabilize Sudan.
The ICG warns that if the NCP is allowed to maintain the status quo, the 2010 elections are likely to be fraudulent, and many Darfuris will be disenfranchised. This, the report concludes, will undermine the conditions for the subsequent referendum in the South and possibly spark off a full-scale civil war.
The ICG however warns against the temptation to craft a hurried humanitarian, political and security solution for Darfur just to ensure the success of the 2010 elections and the 2011 referendum, saying justice for the crimes committed in Darfur could slip away in the process.
This warning echoes the weaknesses in the CPA, which was negotiated separately from the already raging conflict in Darfur, and was signed without including any significant structures for justice against the atrocities committed during the 21-year North-South civil war.
In its recommendations, the ICG urges the joint African Union-UN mediator, Djibril Bassolé, to give prominence to "judicial reforms and transitional justice mechanisms such as a truth and reconciliation commission” in an ongoing effort sponsored by Qatar to resolve the Darfur crisis.
China has already voiced its clear support for Bashir, and the ICG report cautions that Khartoum may try to take advantage of US President Barack Obama’s keenness to improve American relations with the Muslim world.