Harassment and restrictions, but election likely to be judged fair

The September 5 Angolan election is likely to be pronounced free and fair despite strong concerns from rights organisations and claims by the main opposition party that it is being harassed. Angolans will vote for a new national assembly on September 5 in the first elections held since 1992 and SA¹s President, Thabo Mbeki, still dealing with the aftermath of Zimbabwe¹s contentious polls, has already pronounced the election will be successful. At the same time European Union monitors have been arriving in the country, though they will be thinly dispersed in the countryside and it is generally expected they will announce a verdict that aligns with the government¹s wishes. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos said before the start of the campaign that Angola should give an example to Africa and to the world, in an apparent bid to repair the damage the Zimbabwe elections have done.

MPLA attack

However, the US-based Human rights Watch has warned in a statement on Wednesday (August 13) of developments that could jeopardize the legitimacy of the September 5 elections. At the same time this week the main opposition party UNITA denounced an aggressive attack² by ³more than 100 MPLA members² with ³swords, stones and sticks² on a UNITA delegation that was campaigning in the Londuimbali municipality in Huambo in central Angola. The attack took place on Wednesday afternoon and only stopped when the national police dispersed the crowd by firing shots into the air.

Police official Carmo Neto confirmed the incident, in UNITA¹s heartland, emphasizing the police¹s ³quick intervention² had ensured that the ³worst was avoided². The EU¹s electoral observers mission in Angola started touring the country¹s 18 provinces on Tuesday. According to the mission¹s deputy-chief, José de Gabriel Pérez, it will cover all the country¹s regions with two-member teams for each region, but in Luanda and in some provinces with high population density the teams will be reinforced. Each will produce a weekly situation report.

Prior to the elections, the observers will meet representatives of the Provincial Electoral Commissions (CPEs), political parties and civil society organisations. Apart from seven EU deputies and 20 diplomats of member cou ntries¹ embassies in Angola, the mission will be reinforced from August 26-28 with around four dozen more observers. But in its wide-ranging and critical report the US-based Human Rights Watch organisation said that many of these international observers will deploy too late to monitor pre-election conditions on the ground. Only the European Commission will deploy 44 long-term monitors. They joined a core team already in Angola last week, followed by 40 short-term observers over the voting period. Deployment of these observers followed lengthy negotiations with the Angolan government and delays in receiving visas, said HRW.

Accreditations for further international observer missions from the African Union, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Community of the Portuguese-Speaking Countries (CPLP) and other international organizations were formalized only recently or were still being processed this week. The deployment of a SADC observer mission remained uncertain. HRW called on the international monitors to remain in Angola for a ³reasonable period beyond the elections² to monitor and publicly report on possible election-related human rights violations.

Some 8.3 million registered citizens are expected to vote in the legislative elections, but Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch, warned that less than a month before elections it was clear that ³Angolans aren¹t able to campaign free from intimidation or pressure. And unless things change now, Angolans won¹t be able to cast their votes freely². Between March and June the rights organisation sent research missions to Luanda and the provinces of Huambo, Bie, Cabinda and Benguela. Human Rights Watch said the government is failing to fully meet basic duties set out in the 'Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections of the Southern Africa Development Community¹ . Major areas of concern include the government¹s obligations to safeguard freedom of assembly and expression and access to the media by all stakeholders, and to establish an impartial national electoral body.

The rights group documented numerous incidents of political violence mainly in rural areas that were most affected by the civil war, involving ruling party supporters through the voter registration period between November 2006 and May 2008. Patterns of violence include sporadic assaults by local MPLA supporters, sometimes involving traditional authorities and local MPLA leaders, against local UNITA party members and their property and party symbols. HRW said that in the UNITA strongholds of Huambo, Bie as well as Benguela, traditional leaders have increasingly come under pressure from the MPLA to prevent UNITA mobilising in villages. It also said that local MPLA supporters were intimidating civil society groups monitoring cases of political violence.

Cabinda conflict

The report rejected government claims that a peace settlement had been reached in the enclave of Cabinda, and said that despite the deal reached in 2006 between the government and a faction of the separatist guerilla group, the Liberation Front of the Enclave of Cabinda (Frente para a Libertação do Enclave de Cabinda , FLEC), a ³low-intensity, but still violent, separatist conflict and heightened military presence continues in the province². It said there was government intimidation of dissident voices, military detention and other restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly undermining prospects for free and fair elections there.

The authorities were targeting opposition parties proposing autonomy for Cabinda, the report added. In August 2007, Mateus Massinga, the provincial secretary of the opposition, Frente para a Democracia (Front for Democracy), was sentenced to five months in prison, suspended for two years, for ³insubordination and incitement of violence² after attempting to distribute a news release supporting autonomy. Police and state security services regularly intimidate and harass journalists and individuals and groups from civil society who have publicly questioned the credibility of the peace agreement, HRW said.

There are serious concerns that Cabindans will stay away from the polls. Earlier this month prominent Cabinda priest Jorge Casimiro Congo called on Cabindans to vote in the elections, saying that this was the only way to introduce a new political elite who would enter into a serious conversation with Cabindans to find a solution to the enclave¹s problems.

Elections oversight

HRW found that overall the media environment in Angola had deteriorated since 2007 and that the institutions running the elections were also flawed. The report said that the elections oversight body, the National Electoral Commission (CNE), chaired by the deputy Supreme Court president, was not independent, with most of the CNE members effectively appointed by the ruling party. In addition the electoral commission has depended for logistical support on the government¹s Inter-Ministerial Commission for the Electoral Process (CIPE), which should come under its supervision. The CIPE is dominated by the ruling MPLA and chaired by the Minister of Territorial Administration, Virgílio Fontes Pereira, who is also a senior MPLA candidate in the election.

The CIPE carried out Angola¹s voter registration from November 2006 to May 2008 and was critical in determining the location of polling centres and stations until the end of July 2008. HRW also found that the government has restricted independent access to the central voters¹ register and has ignored civil society recommendations to conduct an external audit of the register. Angolan civil society organizations are concerned that the CNE¹s selection criteria for polling station officials, domestic observers and voter education campaigners may also be tainted by ruling party interference. The government repeatedly delayed the establishment of a constitutional court to deal with complaints, as required by the SADC Guidelines. The court was finally established on June 25.

Little change expected, except inside ruling party

Weeks before the September 5 election it appeared unlikely there would be an upset and that the main opposition UNITA party would make significant inroads into the power of the ruling MPLA. However, it was likely that a weak showing by the MPLA would strengthen the hand of the pro-democracy faction inside the ruling party. On the other hand MPLA insiders have indicated that if the party makes a strong showing it will build an inclusive government to replace the present government of national unity, which is a front for the MPLA. Party veteran Isaac dos Anjos said a new government could include members of civil society and of the opposition. He agreed in an interview with the Cruzeiro do Sul newspaper that the MPLA was unprepared to lose power and that ³only the regular holding of elections will allow people to be come used to the alternation of power². Some MPLA members are believed to be restive under the iron hand of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. The current oil and credit boom may give them more space to press for changes, say observers.

UNITA stays hopeful

UNITA is still hoping for a boost to its fortunes and that its role in prolonging the civil war after the 1992 elections will be forgotten in the face of the MPLA¹s corruption scandals and its elite living high amidst persistent mass poverty. A poll in June by the BBC World Service Trust found that of the 2,000 Angolans interviewed, 56 percent said they wanted a change of government and 86 percent said they would vote for change. In Luanda, with a third of all eligible voters, 70 percent called for change.

One sign of a possible shift came early this month when UNITA, struggling for campaign resources, pulled in about 30,000 people for a rally in the Palanca suburb in Luanda a week after an MPLA rally in Luanda gathered less than half of its expected crowd of half a million, despite free transport, food, and music. Nevertheless the private press remains sceptical about Unita¹s ability to mobilise a significant vote and to overcome its legacy.

Soldiers¹ guns collected ahead of vote

Angola has begun collecting soldiers weapons normally kept at home to ensure stability ahead of the country’s September 5 legislative elections. General Francisco Furtado, chief of staff of the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA), denied he was disarming his soldiers, but said the military needed to have greater control of weaponry ³for the maintenance of peace and stability in the country². Members of the police and army had previously been allowed to keep weapons at home. Now al l weapons belonging to the army would be stored at barracks. In 1992 the government widely distributed guns to civilians in the face of renewed fighting with Unita and has now stepped up a campaign to recover these weapons...