Somalia in dire need of a stable government
The current developments in Somalia do not augur well for regional and global peace. They only confirm earlier fears of a lasting peace in the Horn of Africa nation following the installation President Abdullahi Ahmed Yusuf, himself a former war lord and self-declared president of the breakaway northern province of Puntland. While critics in Somalia accused him of being the first person to wage an armed struggle against the government of the day, western diplomats in Nairobi equally expressed fears that the election of a former factional leader would instead give rise to a club of warlords, who would in turn gain respectability instead of being held accountable for past human rights abuses. Their words have now come to pass.
A major obstacle to a lasting peace in Somalia is that the current transition government is composed of the very war-lords whose endless fighting in 1990s brought the country to its current state. Analysts also observe that little has been done to reconcile the enemies who now sit together in parliament. There is a high likelihood that when the Ethiopian forces finally leave, the country will still degenerate into civil war.
The current developments also lend credence to a march 2004 report by the UN weapon monitors, which warned that Islamic militants in Somalia, some equipped with weapons smuggled through Kenya were planning to wage a guerilla war against the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) ‘Fundamentalist militias, including some affiliated with Somalia’s sharia courts aim at the ultimate control of the people and the territory of Somalia’, says the report. The report makes specific reference to al-Itihad, a Somali group that the US says is linked to Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda network.’ The position of al-Itihad versus the transitional federal government is one of non-negotiation. It intends to fight by using the guerilla tactics of hit-and-run and ambush’, notes the report.
True to its contents, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) waged a guerilla war and eventually captured the capital, Mogadishu, in June 2006. But the Islamists were driven out of Mogadishu on Christmas Day, following the intervention of Ethiopian forces, who were called in by President Yusuf with the support of the US.
There is no gainsaying that this once relatively wealthy Horn of Africa nation has been without a stable government since 1991when former dictator Mohammed Siad Barre was ousted by militias. Somalia is now made up of two self-declared enclaves in the north and a patchwork of quarrelling clan fiefdoms in the south. Yet, Somalia remains a land of changing fortunes It had its last constitutional government in 1969 when President Abdurashid Ali Shamake was killed by his bodyguards. The army, led by Barre took over until 1991 when the clans came in and continued during the Barre dictatorship.
Ironically, the economy has improved despite the clan warfare in the last 10 years, as have health and education than during the 31 years it had a government. The Somalis currently have a choice of 15 TV stations and 20 mobile phone companies that serve a very vibrant market. In July 2004, the giant bottling firm, Cocacola, opened a factory in the war-torn country.
The upshot of this is that with honest dialogue, order can be restored in Somalia. And dialogue should start with the TFG itself, which is split down the middle. The sharp divisions in the TFG have no doubt, continued to scuttle the fragile peace in Somalia. Before the government relocated to Somalia, Prime Minister Mohammed Ali Ghedi claimed that some ministers wanted to wreck the government formed in exile in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi in order to prevent its return to Somalia, thereby causing a new civil war. But Ghedi, instead of initiating dialogue, threatened to sack the rebel ministers, warning that nothing would stop President Yusuf’s administration from moving to Somalia and ensuring peace and stability nationwide.
As it were, dialogue now remains the only option. It may be recalled that the US military intervention of 1992-93 ended up with the world’s only superpower being humiliated. To avoid such scenarios, all the interested parties should bring the warring factions to the negotiating table. Kenya should take a lead in this as its business community stands to benefit from a peaceful Somalia through investments. It is noteworthy that after hosting the Sudanese peace talks, Kenyan firms were among the first ones to invest in various sectors in Southern Sudan.
At this juncture, it is worth mentioning that Kenya’s decision to close its border in the wake of Islamists fleeing Somalia was warranted. For the country has suffered two terrorist attacks, one in 1998 and another in 2002, with the arsenals having been brought to the country through its border with Somalia. Yet, over the years, Kenya has been home to millions of refugees from both the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes Region. Last December, President Mwai Kibaki assented to a law, which will enable the refugees living in the country to have jobs, among other benefits.