Whither ODM?

NAIROBI--In the pre-referendum days, the Orange Democratic Movement emerged as a solid faction resolute about constitutionalism and an inter-party union with an agenda.

The ensuing euphoria was symbolic of the 2002 elections scenario when Narc came to power. Indeed, Kenya’s political landscape has changed fundamentally in the wake of voters’ rejection of a proposed new constitution. The outcome of the referendum was a setback for the president, Mwai Kibaki, who campaigned for a “yes” vote (not least because the proposed measure would have cemented presidential powers).

Despite this, he will continue to resist calls for an early general election from the so-called Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which grouped together the opposition Kenya African National Union (KANU) party as well as several cabinet ministers from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)--Mr Kibaki’s erstwhile partner in the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) that swept to power in 2002--in campaigning for a “no” vote.

Instead, Mr Kibaki will try to hang on until the end of his scheduled term in December 2007, and may attempt to build a new base from which to launch another presidential challenge. His chances of success would seem somewhat limited, however.

Nonetheless, it is clear that all “orange” supporters have been purged, including seven LDP ministers (such as Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Anyang N’yongo), while most loyal pro-Kibaki ministers have been retained, many in their old portfolios. David Mwiraria and George Saitoti remain at finance and education respectively, although Kiraitu Murungi was demoted from justice (and the constitution) to energy, to be replaced by the former water minister, Martha Karua. Simeon Nyachae, of the Ford People party, moves from energy to roads, Raila Odinga’s old portfolio.

The reshuffle has given little encouragement to those fighting graft: while the corruption-tainted Chris Murungaru was not offered a new job, the post of ethics and governance officer was scrapped. Overall, the new cabinet merely confirms what had been suspected for some time: that the National Rainbow Coalition between the Kibaki camp and the LDP is now wholly defunct.

This has, inevitably, necessitated realignment and change of tact for ODM. But then, this is a call for unified effort, which has turned out to be a sensitive subject. The once portrayed resolve for common good has yielded to personal interests and ambition, contrary to the perception created that ODM luminaries would hold together “to the bitter end” and possibly throw their weight behind one popular candidate in the next general election.

However, recent developments have cast doubt on the faction’s unity and longevity in view of elections in 2007. What with luminaries declaring their individual candidacy for the presidency and splitting along ethnic lines? ODM heavyweights, who included Kanu’s Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto, Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka have all made known their intentions.

This change of heart is argued to have been occasioned by the emergence of splinter groups with presidential ambitions. A case in point is the Kanu faction allied to Nicholas Biwott whose scheme to put forward a presidential candidate has not gone down well with the Kenyatta side, prompting the latter to ditch his colleagues’ idealism and join the race. Almost in tow, his party’s Secretary General, Ruto, also threw his hat in the ring.

Developments in the ODM will have a crucial impact on the result of the next election, whenever it takes place. In the pre-referendum days, the ODM stood out as a united outfit for its national appeal, whose patrons were leaders from all provinces.

If the ODM fights as a single entity it should have a very good chance of unseating Mr Kibaki, but if the LDP and KANU wage separate campaigns the Kibaki camp could win on a split vote. In an opinion poll conducted in mid-year Mr Kibaki was 13 percentage points ahead of his nearest challenger, but the referendum defeat is likely to have narrowed this gap.

To Mr Kibaki’s advantage it currently seems unlikely that the LDP and KANU will form an electoral alliance to build on the ODM’s success, since this would oblige ambitious politicians in the LDP (such as its de facto leader, Odinga, and his rival, Musyoka) to bury their presidential ambitions once more: the leader of KANU, Kenyatta, would not step back to accommodate them.
The president’s greatest worry was that he will no longer be able to command a majority in parliament.

Apart from struggling to push through legislation, Mr Kibaki faced the prospect of defeat in a no-confidence motion, which would greatly increase pressure for an early election. President Kibaki has struggled to maintain a majority throughout his presidency--in 2004. He was forced to bring in elements of the opposition--but is now entering uncharted territory and can no hardly be sure of his former alliances. The president’s grip on power is more fragile than ever, and the next few months may present him with his greatest political challenge to date.

The survival of the new government will depend to some extent on whether or not the ODM adopts a common front, an issue that in now progressing to the president’s advantage. The LDP was likely to push for a no-confidence motion, but it is not clear whether KANU will offer its support (and without such support the motion would fail). Most KANU nominees have rejected posts in the new cabinet, but the party has not yet decided on the stance it will adopt in parliament.

However, inter-party relations are likely to remain fluid in the pre-election period as factions and personalities jostle for advantage. While this may help Mr Kibaki, he will still require some clear, new successes--such as making a serious effort to tackle corruption--if he is to win the support of the electorate again. On current evidence, whether Mr Kibaki will win a second term is debatable, but if he can overcome the pressure for an early poll and accelerate the promised economic development programme his prospects will brighten slightly.