Zuma's political career unlikely to recover from rape charge, say analysts

[This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations]

JOHANNESBURG-- Former South African deputy president Jacob Zuma appeared in court on Tuesday and was formally charged with rape.

The charge relates to a claim by a 31-year-old HIV/AIDS activist that Zuma allegedly raped her at his home in Johannesburg last month.

Zuma has denied the allegation and said in a statement on Tuesday that he regards the allegations against him "very seriously, as I abhor any form of abuse against women".

He added that he would continue as African National Congress (ANC) deputy president but has suspended his participation in the leading structures of the ruling party.

"I will, however, carry on with the general activities of the ANC as expected of all members of our organisation," Zuma explained.

Zuma was fired as the country's deputy president in June after he was implicated in a high-profile fraud trial related to South Africa's arms procurement programme.

His dismissal as deputy president of the country created a rift between him and the South African President Thabo Mbeki, which degenerated into the worst crisis the ANC has faced since being elected to power in 1994.

Zuma had been regarded as a possible candidate to succeed Mbeki, who completes his second term of office in 2009. Zuma's supporters claim he has been the victim of a smear campaign.

Analysts told IRIN that the rape charge was a severe blow to Zuma's political ambitions.

"The rape charge has weakened Zuma's position considerably in the short- to medium-term. If he wins his case, he could still have a chance at rebuilding his credibility in the long-term," said political analyst Kuseni Dlamini.

The rape trial could be a test-case on the rule of law for the rest of Africa, said Professor John Stremlau, head of the department of international relations at South Africa's University of the Witwatersrand.

However, Zuma was unlikely to recover from the latest setback, "politically, he is finished," Stremlau added.

Colleen Lowe Morna, executive director of the Gender Links NGO, said the fact that the charge had been laid during the 16 Days of Activism against the abuse of women and children was significant.

"We must take heart from the fact that it indicates no one is above the law and also from the fact that the accuser felt able to lay the charge despite the odds - where she had indicated that she feared she would be alone against the whole country. In a normal case of gender abuse, the accuser often gives in to pressure and retracts her statement," she noted.

Zuma was released on R20,000 (about US $3,000) bail and the trial is scheduled to start on 13 February 2006.