Democracy finally gains roots

ADDIS ABABA--While prime minister Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) won nearly 300 seats in the 547-seat federal parliament, the phenomenal gain by the opposition of over 200 seats, is promising one of the most vibrant parliaments in the country's political history.
The gain by the opposition, that held only 20 seats in the previous parliament, is seen as a major boost for democracy in Ethiopia even though a shadow of violence looms large given that full results are yet to be declared three months after the elections marred by allegations of rigging claims of victory from both sides.
Political observers such as Amare Aregawi, the proprietor The Reporter weekly newspaper— one of the few non-aligned publications in Ethiopia—declared the elections as a major victory for democracy in an election where a record 29 million voted. "Ethiopians have never registered and voted in that number. It is an indication that the fear mentality is gone and people are beginning to speak out either directly or through the ballot," said Mr Aregawi, who however added that the opposition simply benefited from the growing dissatisfaction with the government and the results does not necessarily mean confidence in the opposition.
EPRDF, despite the win, has been hard hit by the total loss of Addis Ababa, where a combined opposition—comprising Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), the Union of Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF), Unity Party and their allies—ensured that the previously dominant ruling party did not get a single seat in the capital.
Such is the impact that EPRDF on losing Addis Ababa, immediately started implementing some pro-people policies that have been hard to come by in their 14 year-rule, though the ruling party insists that the changes have been in the pipeline for a while. EPRDF has introduced a tax relief on businesses that were previously threatened with closure on default. In addition, land lease and acquisition process has not only been made swifter, but the lease down payment has been lowered from the previous 30 to 20 percent.
But the most profound move, is the recent decision by EPRDF to accept Addis Ababa as the headquarters of the Oromia State, despite having previously resisted the same claim by the Oromo Liberation Front that are fighting a separatist war in the south. Critics, however, argue that some of these moves are meant to benefit the moneyed EPRDF ruling elite before the opposition takes over the running of the capital in September.
The irony is that opposition despite strong showing has failed to impress as a viable alternative to the EPRDF that came to power in 1991 after a long-drawn guerilla war against the government of deposed former president, Mengistu Hail Mariam.
One unique aspect of Ethiopian politics is that those in government are far much younger than the opposition, creating some sort of dilemma in the minds of some voters who do not believe that the octogenerain-led opposition represents progress at this time and age.
Such is the dilemma that many Ethiopians are finding themselves in. Whether to support the "devil" they know with the hope that the EPRDF will succumb to internal and external pressure and allow more civil liberties, or support the opposition cause with little guarantee of better things in the future. Mesfin Kebede, a computer technician in Piazza, a major business centre in the heart of Addis Ababa, summarised the dilemma: "While the opposition have not been able to convince many Ethiopians that they stand for progress and different ideology, the problem with EPRDF is that they are stuck in the belief that Ethiopians will forever be grateful for them for ridding them of Mengistu".
Earlier fears that the failure by the electoral body to declare full results three months after the elections would result into a major social strife, have since eased as the previously nondescript opposition have opted to consolidate their gains and seek legal redress rather resorting to mass action that led to the death of 36 protesters in June.
The election results is reminiscent to the first multi-party election in Kenya in 1992 where the former monolithic Kanu— though won majority seats in parliament plus the leeway to nominate 12 additional MPs— was faced with a strong-willed and sizeable opposition members that gave the government a rough time in parliament, forcing Kanu to resort to systematic poaching of opposing MPs.
But unlike the then president Daniel Moi who faced serious pressure from the Western countries in the post-1992 elections, Meles still enjoys the support of the West, especially Britain that considers him one of the leading lights in Tony Blair's Commission for Africa. Despite clamping down on protesters under the new law that outlaw street protests, Mr Zenawi in July became the first winner of the newly-created Norwegian Yara Prize (worth $200,000) for his contribution to the improvement of food security and human nutrition in ways that also protect the environment.
Yet, EPRDF will have to work extra hard if it is to prevent the opposition from gaining an upper hand in the next elections. Apparently, both opposition and government supporters concur that the EPRDF government is a major improvement from the Derg that brooked no dissent and crushed its enemies with zeal. One of the major gains of the EPRDF government is the relative freedom and the growth of free enterprise that were totally lacking during the 17-year Derg rule.
That is , EPRDF leadership are at loss why many Ethiopians are complaining when things have improved tremendously compared to the last two regimes. Explains Mr Aragawi: "Compared to the past, we are miles ahead, but compared to what Ethiopians deserve and what other African are enjoying, we are years behind. There is a time limit under which you can compare yourself with the previous regimes and begin to measure yourself with international standards.
With a population of 72 million—the third populous country in Africa after Nigeria and Egypt—only 24 percent of the population has access to safe drinking water, while infant mortality rate stands at 112 per 1,000 births. Other problems facing the Zenawi government include recurrent drought where an estimated five million people require daily food rationing, besides raising cases of malaria and HIV/Aids.

The landmark elections, described as the first democratic process in Ethiopia's political history on account of huge voter-participation and enthusiasm, was fought— and will continue to be disputed— along four key issues. The land issue, where the opposition want private ownership of land in order to allow the modernisation of agriculture that is the backbone of the economy, but EPRDF maintain that land should remain in the hands of government. This is followed closely by the dispute over the constitution, where the opposition are fighting for the repeal of an article that allows any ethnic-based federal state to secede.
Again, the economy is a major contention with the opposition alleging that the government has failed tackle poverty and get rid the country's image as food aid-dependent nation. But of great concern as the perception by both the opposition and the media that the government from 2002, has rolled back the democratic gains of 1991. Though independent press is thriving , the law to establish a private broadcasting station is merely on paper. The only radio and television in operation are government-owned, though opposition do get coverage. Similarly, there are no private mobile phone providers, the line and top-up cards are managed by the government at the expense of privacy. Most Ethiopians feel that their communications are being monitored, especially during the tension-packed three months over the disputed results.