Impending referendum polarizes country

Being the first time Kenyans will be taking part in a referendum, the exercise is likely to turn into a political duel where regional aspirations are likely to come into play, in relation to what they expected of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) government since the 2002 elections.
According to a commissioner with the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC), Dr Githu Muigai, a referendum is an election and all the issues that arise during a general election will come to the fore. The only difference is that people will be voting over issues.
Among the three cross-cutting issues that are likely to influence voting in Kenya's eight provinces include religion, free primary education and the constituency development funds (CDF). Of particular focus is the Rift Valley that has the largest number of registered voters and a bastion of the former ruling party Kanu that is spearheading the No vote together with the Liberal democratic Party (LDP).
Here, a combination of political and economic factors will influence the vote, with Kanu members allied to the official leader of the opposition, Uhuru Kenyatta, hoping that the residents will toe the party line and vote against the draft. The current hot issue in the Rift Valley, is the security of land titles following the recent eviction of 10,000 families in Mau Forest, and which the No proponents are hoping to use as a rallying point.
But more crucial to Kanu is that the referundum could be used to give Kanu a new lease of life after a humilating loss in the last elecion, with the knowledge that a Yes win could render Kanu irrelevant in the cosmopolitan region. The challenge for Kanu is that save for the evictions that might be used to turn a no verdict against the government, the people of Rift Valley are rating the government highly on the economic front, especially the farmers.
The revival of the Kenya Co-operative Creameries (KCC) and the stabilisation of the price of milk at Ksh 17 per litre, down from the previous Ksh 4, had a positive impact on dairy farmers. Equally stable is the price of cereals, especially maize that is currently between Ksh 1,400-1,500 per bag compared to previous years where the prices could go as low as Ksh 400 per bag.
However, Kanu secretary-general, William Ruto, is convinced that the referendum will not be influenced by the regional interests but, other than the national concern over the issue of the executive and the devolution of power. "We are going to vote as Kenyans, who having agitated for years to have the powers of the president reduced, are now seeing a more powerful president forced down their throats," he said.
The next crucial region is president Kibaki's Central province that has all along been in favour of the presidential system and a centralised form of government. To this region, a Yes vote means a vote for Kibaki's presidency. Comprising president Kibaki's bedrock, residents of Central province have been looking to the NARC government to make amends in terms of development projects after 24-year rule of the former president Daniel Moi which they believe targeted them. The province will be approaching the referundum with the knowledge that a No vote would seriosly affect the chances of president Kibaki getting a second term in 2007. They will also take into account the fact that Kanu chairman, Mr Kenyatta—who also hails from the same province and is poised for a second shot at the presidency—is in the camp of those rooting for the No vote.
Far from the belief that the vote in North Eastern —that has independent groused deliberate marginalisation— over the years was going to revolve around the contentious Kadhi's Court , the region was looking to the devolution to right what the Kanu MP for Mandera Central, Bilow Kerrow termed as "historical injustices". "The whole system of governance as it currently stands favours majority groups. We sought to address the issue of marginalisation and equitable allocation of resources through devolution. However, according to the new draft, we will still remain at the mercy of the central government," he said.
Yet, the area, with a very strong clan loyalty is likely to spit down the middle, given that there are those clans who traditionally support Kanu having benefited during Moi's rule through the influence of certain leaders. Secondly, there are those who strongly believe that the devolution according to the Bomas Draft could have gone along way in addressing the issues of historical injustices that the area has suffered in the form of prosecution and loss of land.
Thirdly, Kerrow conceded that the people of the region have always supported the government of the day with the hope of improving their welfare, an event that is likely to influence others to vote with the government. "Though the introduction of CDF is a major departure from the past, it is a drop in the ocean because it cannot be used for major infrastructure such as roads," he said.
But the most complex region remains the multi-ethnic Eastern province, that is principally divided into three with distinct interests. The Embu and Meru districts are inclined towards the government and are likely to vote for the draft. However, Kanu cheif whip, Justin Muturi, argued that the power given by the Electoral and Boundaries Commission to abolish districts that cannot sustain themselves, could cause alarm in the region that districts created during Moi's time could be targeted.
Then there is the northern tip of Eastern province—Moyale, Isiolo and Marsablit— that are more concerned with the issue of insecurity that has dogged the are for decades. A vote from this region will be pegged on how the new constitution has put in place, mechanism to rid the region of the banditry menace.
However, the focus will be on the more populous southern tip of Eastern, mainly under the influence of Environmet minister, Kalonzo Musyoka and Health minister, Charity Ngilu. The main concern here, according to CKRC commissioner, Wambua Musili, will be pegged on political aspirations of the region and development issues, especially the hope that the coming of NARC government was set to look into the of access to water. "While development issues are dear to the people of this region, the increased frustration that none of their own is currently positioned for the country's leadership, might also come to play," he said. Most residents of the area are banking on Musyoka to ascend to the country's top seat. With similar aspirations, is the Nyanza province, where most of the residents were rooting for parliamentary system of government and devolution. Nyanza, like the Rift Valley, will be the launching pad for the No vote, given that roads minister, Raila Odinga, who holds sway in the region, is spiritedly opposed to the presidential system. In particular, the region was banking on devolution to correct what they perceive as years of deliberate neglect by the successive governments.
Yet, the region is also multi-ethnic with the southern tip holding totally different political orientation from the rest. However, the neighbouring Western province will be a fishing ground for the two camps and could go either way. According to the MP for Ikolomani, Bonny Khalwale, "The region does not have entrenched positions to defend, though the majority are likely to vote with the government because most of the issues relating to the area's economy have been addressed by the current government".
Of great interest to Western province during the last lections, was the revival of the agricultural sector, especially sugarcane. Other concerns were education and public health. "So far, we have no complaints, although the issues of poverty and HIV/Aids have not received the attention we expected," said the assistant minister, Soita Shitanda.
Another tricky region is the Coast province, where the contentious Kadhi's Court and devolution, is going to be a major issues. Since independence, the coastal region—with the highest concentration of Muslims— has always been in favour of a federal form of government, otherwise known as majimbo, as an answer to what they perceive as the use of their resources to benefit other region. But more close the ears of coastal residents, is the issue of land. The coast is reputed to have the largest number of squatters in the country yet thousands of acres are held by absentee landlords, most of them non-Kenyan residents.