Zuma controversy may threaten stability, say analysts

JOHANNESBURG--Zuma was fired by President Thabo Mbeki soon after the fraud trial of his former financial advisor, Schabir Shaik, came to an end.

Zuma's dismissal has caused Mbeki to face a storm of criticism from his party, the ruling African National Congress (ANC), and its alliance partners, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). COSATU and the SACP have openly pledged their support for Zuma.

In a letter to an alliance meeting last week, Mbeki said: "I am informed that some within our broad movement, who believe that Deputy President Zuma is a victim of a counter-revolutionary, capitalist and neo-liberal offensive, are convinced that, as president of the ANC and the republic, I occupy the leading position in the political onslaught against [ANC] Deputy President Zuma.

"I understand that these are spreading the story that, presumably for counter-revolutionary reasons, I am opposed to Comrade Zuma becoming president of the ANC and the republic."

These rumours had "already caused great harm to the ANC, the alliance, the broad democratic movement, the democratic revolution and the country", said Mbeki, and the alliance leadership had to confront the matter "head-on".

The president challenged the alliance to hold a commission of inquiry to establish whether the corruption allegations against Zuma stemmed from a conspiracy to sideline his former deputy politically.

Paul Graham, executive director of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, commented, "People have looked at Mbeki's offer and have said it's either a master-stroke, as it will take the sting out of the debate and uncover it for what it is - unprovable gossip - or it is the mark of an exasperated person."

"I think whichever it is, if it were to happen it would be found that this is a lot of unprovable gossip, but that won't resolve the matter: what's feeding this controversy is emotions and feelings, and serious and deep differences of political opinion ... within the alliance," he noted. "Those things will have to be resolved within the alliance. I think the commission would be a waste of money."

However, Graham pointed out that the problem would have to be resolved, "otherwise you've got a governing party in conflict with itself, potentially undermining its own constitutional commitments".

CORRUPT RELATIONSHIP

Among the allegations Zuma faces is that he tried to solicit a R500,000 (about US $77,500) bribe, through Shaik, from a company that won contracts in South Africa's controversial arms procurement programme.

In January 2001, Bulelani Ngcuka, the then national director of public prosecutions, launched an investigation into both Zuma and the former ANC chief whip, Tony Yengeni.

The investigation centred on whether they had offered their political influence to arms deal bidders in return for financial benefit.

Yengeni was charged, tried and convicted. However, Ngcuka stated that while "there was prima facie evidence of corruption" against Zuma, it was "insufficient to win a case in court".

Zuma featured as a key figure throughout the trial of his former advisor, Shaik, who was convicted of two counts of corruption and one of fraud, and sentenced to an effective 15 years in jail in June this year. The judge described the relationship between Shaik and Zuma as "generally corrupt".

Mbeki relieved Zuma of his duties as deputy president on 14 June, telling a joint sitting of parliament that "in the interest of the honourable deputy president, the government, our young democratic system and our country, it would be best to release the honourable Jacob Zuma from his responsibilities as deputy president of the republic and member of the cabinet".

Shortly afterwards, the national prosecuting authority announced that they were ready to charge Zuma with two counts of corruption.

VOCAL SUPPORT

Zuma's supporters are demanding that Mbeki reinstate him and quash the charges, a turnaround from earlier calls to let Zuma have his day in court.

Zuma is championed by the "left" in South African politics, who have grown increasingly critical of Mbeki's "neo-liberal" policies that have struggled to deliver on jobs and poverty alleviation. As both deputy president of the ANC and the country, Zuma was expected to be next in line to succeed Mbeki in 2009.

Independent political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi told IRIN the demands by Zuma's supporters were becoming increasingly "irrational" and "cannot be met" by Mbeki without sacrificing the country's constitution.

Graham agreed, saying that "all that can happen is to go forward [with the trial] and, at the end of it, if Zuma is proven to have been accused unjustly, he can seek remedies".

However, he commented that former deputy presidents could not sue for unfair dismissal. "You serve at the pleasure of the president, and in many democracies people are asked to move on for all sorts of reasons - it's one of the occupational hazards."

Matshiqi said Mbeki's offer to establish a commission of inquiry was likely to be declined by proponents of the conspiracy theory.

"Mbeki needs the support of COSATU and the SACP for the idea to fly, but it's highly unlikely that the two will accept his idea. They believe there is a conspiracy against Zuma, and if they also believe that Mbeki is behind the conspiracy, or one of the people behind it, then they would see his suggestion as a cynical political move," Matshiqi explained.

Conspiracies were "very difficult to prove", and "COSATU and others who support Zuma will have difficulty providing evidence" of a plot against Zuma, he noted.

"They've been using this allegation to whip up mass popular support for Zuma, and if they don't agree to the commission it will look like they've been making the allegation without having any evidence to support it - they're damned if they agree to a commission, and damned if they don't, so they're in a fix," Matshiqi observed.

This is the second time those defending Zuma have latched onto conspiracy theories to defend him: the Hefer commission of enquiry was established in 2004 after Schabir Shaik's brother, Mo, and former government minister Mac Maharaj claimed they had evidence that former director of prosecutions Ngcuka was an apartheid-era spy and was 'targeting' Zuma because he was aware of this.

"If the proposed inquiry is an objective test of the allegation, then that allegation [of a conspiracy] would be rubbished, just as the spying allegations against Ngcuka were rubbished at the Hefer commission," Matshiqi pointed out.

"Mbeki's suggestion may then have the effect of dividing the alliance even further, because COSATU will have been pushed deeper into the political corner they already find themselves in and they might become more desperate. It could have undesirable consequences for the country," he warned.

A commission of inquiry could "reinforce the climate that already exists, in which Zuma's supporters are unlikely to accept a guilty verdict in his [court] case".

"I shudder to think what will happen on that day," Matshiqi said. "If the masses who support Zuma are mobilised against a guilty verdict, then you cannot exclude a violent reaction to that verdict."

However, he believed that "cracks are emerging within COSATU", as those who stridently supported Zuma were "beginning to look irrational" as a result of their changing positions and unconstitutional demands.