All eyes on mediators after rebels withdraw backing for October polls

Rebels holding the northern half of the divided West African country said on Thursday that elections could not be held in their territory as planned on 30 October because the conditions were still not in place just nine weeks before polling day.

Gbagbo's spokesman, Desire Tagro, told IRIN on Friday that it was up to the mediators to sort out the rebel side. He said the president had stuck to his side of a peace deal, first hammered out in January 2003 and reaffirmed at two summits in the South African capital, Pretoria.

“We consider that we have correctly implemented the roadmap to peace as laid out by the mediator and we don’t want to enter into an argument with people who have not done their part of the job,” Tagro said.

“We have no comment until 31 August, when the mediator will discuss his findings with the United Nations,” he said.

At the end of the month, the mediating team, lead by South African President Thabo Mbeki, will report to the UN Security Council in New York and give their assessment of how the peace process is -- or is not -- progressing.

UN officials in Abidjan, as well as South African ministers, have publicly reminded the warring factions in recent days that the Security Council could impose sanctions on anyone found to be blocking the peace process.

The South African mediation team stayed tight-lipped on Friday, as diplomats and Cote d'Ivoire residents fretted over the possibility of more violence to come in what was once the regional bastion of peace and security.

Expatriate residents of the main city Abidjan have been stocking up on food and other essentials after escalating rumours of plots to topple Gbagbo. Last Friday, the French embassy warned all its remaining nationals not to go out after dark.

Charles Ble Goude, leader of the pro-Gbagbo militia the Young Patriots -- who have been blamed for a number of violent riots and anti-French attacks in Abidjan -- told IRIN that he wasn’t surprised by the rebels intransigence.

“Rebels will be rebels,” Goude chimed. “It’s clear they are happy with the current situation and they will always find an excuse not to comply with the peace agreement.”

He called for interventions from the international community, but urged his own supporters to remain calm.

“We ask the international community to act, to take the necessary measures. But we ask the Young Patriots to stay calm and keep faith in Mbeki’s mediation,” he said.

However, diplomats were doubtful that the situation could be rescued.

“The peace process appears totally blocked,” a western diplomat told IRIN.

One of the stumbling blocks for October elections for the rebels is that there has not been an identification and registration process for all Ivorian citizens ahead of polling day.

But one diplomat pointed out that such a process would take two years.

“Last October a UN mission concluded that it would take two years to go from village to village and determine who is Ivorian. If the rebels make this requisite, it will take a long time before we emerge from this crisis,” the diplomat said.

Two and a half years after the first peace deal was signed by the warring sides, not a single gun has been handed over to the 10,000 UN and French peacekeepers patrolling the buffer zone that splits the country in two. Disarmament was a key prerequisite for the divided country to be reunited ahead of elections.

With polling day fast approaching, a voter register has yet to be drawn up, voting cards have not been issued and the National Electoral Commission that will oversee the polls is not up and running.

At the crux of the delay is an argument over who is going to oversee the voting process.

Gbagbo wants to stick with precedent and allow the National Statistics Institute to oversee the vote.

At June talks in Pretoria, the rebels agreed to this on the proviso that a new body, the Independent Electoral Commission, be set up with representatives from the government and rebel sides to maintain a watchful, supervisory, eye over the process.

But the rebels have changed their mind and now say they will only send their representatives to the Commission if the National Statistics Institute is withdrawn from the whole process.

Ivorian voters, tired of the never ending arguments and missed deadlines, would rather the UN step in and get the job done.

“The time has come for the United Nations to place Cote d’Ivoire under tutelage and organise free and fair elections,” said Mohamed Kabbah, a caretaker in Abidjan.