Garang's death: Will peace hold?

The death last month of Sudan’s first Vice-President John Garang poses serious challenges to the implementation of the peace accord in Sudan, the survival of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and reconstruction of southern Sudan whose plans were already in top gear.

For one, fears abound that following his death, peace may not hold in Sudan as no leader within the SPLM/A has the requisite diplomatic skills as well as respect of southern military field commanders – qualities that enabled Garang negotiate for the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Analysts observe that full compliance with the CPA – a complicated agreement - may not be possible under certain circumstances depending on the political dynamics in the country. Notably, matters could be compounded by lack of political will or resistance from elements within the two parties.

The fears have been exacerbated by what observers see as Garang’s major weakness - his failure to delegate duties, a factor that made it difficult for potential successors to gain the necessary leadership experience. It does not help matters that the death has heightened the perennial suspicion between the north and south, following speculation that Garang might not have died in an accident. With his death, the southerners – who complained of being marginalized for decades - are slowly beginning to lose hope in the secession, which they hoped to achieve with the signing of the peace agreement.

Whereas the Sudanese government and the new SPLM/A leadership have vowed to implement the peace agreement, its fruition will largely depend on the outcome of investigations of Garang’s helicopter crash. A major conflict is likely to erupt should investigations point to a possible involvement of the Khartoum government, Garang’s military rivals in the south or Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA).

To the international community, Garang’s death adds a new twist to the crisis in the western Darfur region. Garang emerged as the only southerner who cared for Darfur. Other southerners hold the misconception that it was the people of Darfur who slaughtered them in the Anya Anya rebellion of 1955-72, merely because 50 per cent of the soldiers in Sudan’s army hail from Darfur. Critics of Kiir Mayardit, Garang’s successor aver that his hands-off policy will give the Khartoum government a free hand to decide on the fate of Darfur.

According to Abdelbagi Jibril, Executive Director, Darfur Relief and Documentation Centre, the new SPLM/A leadership is aware of the strategic dangers that the conflicts in Darfur and Eastern
Sudan pose to successful implementation of the CPA and also for maintaining and preserving peace and security in the South and Sudan in general, yet it is unclear whether they are prepared to assume Garang’s expected role in resolving the crisis in Darfur and Eastern
Sudan. He says the challenge before the government of Sudan and the SPLA/M is
that they need to implement the CPA in letter and spirit in the absence of Garang.

The major problem, however, remains among the southerners, with the survival of the SPLM/A increasingly coming under threat. Yet, a split within its ranks could bring an end to the CPA and embroil the whole region in total devastation. Though Kiir may be acceptable to the majority of SPLM commanders in the field, he is not likely to garner the same respect like Garang and does not enjoy regional support. Unlike Garang, he is not an intellectual, does not have diplomatic ties with regional leaders and lacks the wherewithal to hold the movement together.

Add to these, he has enemies in the names of Dr Riek Machar, caretaker administrator of western Equitoria state, Dr Lam Akol, administrator western Bahr-el-Ghazal state and James Wani, administrator of Upper Nile state. Dr Machar, who comes from the Nuer tribe, the second largest ethnic group in southern Sudan had in the past tried to topple Dr Garang. Like Dr Machar, Dr Akol also participated in attempts to overthrow Dr Garang. Notably, SPLM’s strength will be tested by the National Islamic Front (NIF), a dominant force in the new government in Khartoum. NIF controls the military, security and intelligence and various paramilitary proxies, such as the Janjaweed in Darfur.

But it is the proposed investment in and reconstruction of southern Sudan that will bear the heaviest brunt of Garang’s death. A number of companies that had expressed interest in southern Sudan have now adopted a wait and see attitude following violence that erupted soon after Garang’s death. What cannot be gainsaid, however, is that his death is likely to rekindle
competition between oil companies. It may be recalled that he had strong ties with the two-year-old White Nile, a small British company that claims exploration rights to an area, which may have up to a billion barrels of crude oil. Following his death, White Nile’s shares fell by 12 per cent. Analysts predict that his death may strengthen Total, the French oil company, which also claims exploration rights over the area.

With his death, investors are nervous because he played an important role in the deal that gives White Nile 60 per cent stake in developing the Block Ba oil concession, a region thought to contain $200bn worth of untapped oil at current prices.